I still have this one lying around. I procrastinated the polishing of the texts and cant be bothered to do it now but also dont want to delay posting further. So here it is with probably more missspelled names and typos than i would like
1. Bralirwa - Cegeka
A fantastic set of leaders with possibly the best cobbler in the division (Girmay), two great climbing leaders (Amezawa, Van Eetvelt), a great puncheur (Madouas) and a solid sprinter (Willems). Most of them have good support and depth behind them. Bralirwa seems like a very safe bet to promote.
2. McCormick Pro Cycling
A strong of climbers with Sosa and Aular, A strong puncheur (Simmons) and a strong sprinter in Riabushenko. I have a few question marks regarding Aular and Riabushenko but the group of leaders seems very strong.
Plenty of strong riders behind with Konychev as a weapon for flat classics (or leadout duties), Yates, Barthe, Peters or Godon amongst others who can deliver strong results.
For me they might be the deepest roster in the division and with strong leaders they look ready for promotion.
3. Jura GIANTS
I believe in Mauro Schmid to be good despite all thats been said by his manager in the past. Darbellay and especially Godoy are excellent leaders in the mountains and the team has multiple riders that can find success behind that trio with Bissegger as a good TT leader and riders like Paet or Larsen being able to perform greatly in their niches.
They dont have the great TTT team that they once had and a few too many talents that could anchor them down a bit but overall, it is still a pretty good team that can promote.
4. UBS - EDP
Almeida, Groenewegen and Jacobs have proven last season that they are strong leaders while Arensman and Müller were pertty disappointing. If they can bounce back with strong seasons, the team looks headed for promotion.
With repeat disappointments, the team still has a shot with a good TT departement as well as some solid contributors like Balmer or Schäppi to collect enough points to be in the fight.
5. Philips - Hero
Four strong leaders in Van Dijke, Zmorka, Hayter, Conci makes them a definitive promotion contender. Lampawog and Kulikovskiy is looking really solid and they also have one of the strongest TTT setups to add further scoring.
The question mark for me is whether Van Dijke or anyone other than Zmorka is really a race winner or if the team will just collect solid points everywhere. If Van Dijkes training makes him strong enough to regularly finish top 3 in the hilly classics, they are going up. But they should be in the fight for sure.
6. Peugeot
Peugeot has two proven PCT leaders in Ranaweera and Paret-Peintre who will surely repeat their solid season from last year while Rutsch is a really solid cobbles leader. The real question mark is the sprinter group. With Coquard and Zabel plus multiple leadout options, a significant part of the cap is invested there. If they nail the sprinter train setup and split the season well between Coquard and Zabel, they should be in the promotion race - if not, they might be a bit more anonymous in the middle of the division.
7. Minions
Multiple strong leaders with Rodrigues, Jakobsen (who imo underperformed last season), Van Niekerk and Kalaba. Solid depth behind them, particularly in the mountains - but not many riders that promise a lot of scoring there.
I'm not in love with the way that the lower half of the team is trying to half-ass a cobbles team, a second leadout train and an okayish TTT setup but its not terrible and at least in regards to the TTT group, it will make more sense next year once a lot of the riders find their maxed abilities.
Overall, i dont think the team has enough punch to really finish in the promotion spots but i dont think they are far away.
8. Sauber Petronas Racing
Sauber in the top half? Thats not the PCT im used to?!
The team has added massively in the hills department to surround Hirschi with more support. Already a top puncheur in the division, he will surely not get any worse and and Kron and Scaroni can lead the team elsewhere if they are given leadership roles.
Misbah is the second big leader of the team and between Rossi and Einhorn the team covers other terrains as well. For once, i dont think the team will have anything to do with the relegation zone!
9. Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
The team has two fantastic leaders in Oomen and Gamper but despite the team looking like it has good depth behind, im not really seeing a ton of depth scorers here. Van Gils will probably be the third contributor to scoring and he should be good but who else? Van Poucke could be one but i dont like him as a puncheur and as a climber he is behind clearly better team mates. Same goes for Calzoni and Covi.
The TT guys are individually not good enough to get strong results and they are lacking a #6, #7 and #8 while they also dont have a good sprinter. It's just hard to promote on the back of just two terrains and i think they are not there yet.
10. Grieg-Maersk
David Per is awesome. Tobias Foss is awesome but I'm not sure if a PCT team can fully use his skill set. I felt like he performed better in GTs than in one-week races and the PTHC one-week races dont suit him well. I'm sure he will be great in Tour of America despite it being no GT but i'm not sure if there are enough races elsewhere where he can really excel.
After that, i mostly see two nice scorers in Abrahamsen and Pithie although both are cobbler-y as well and then a lot of great support riders without all that much scoring potential (although the cobble setup is so strong maybe they can fill secondary scoring with that?). They wont have anything to do with the relegation but it also doesnt really look like a promotion team to me.
11. Zwift - Newton Foundation
Jorgenson is an outstanding rider - but im not in love with any of the riders behind. Elosegui is a rider that always looks a lot more awesome than i expect him to perform and Vernon and Enger are alright riders but not great leaders. I guess Jussaume could be a surprisingly good scorer if hilly stage races with a TT have rather sticky peletons without enough selections but im just not in love with the team behind Jorgenson and then there are a bunch of (strong!) talents filling up the roster.
12. Bacharu Mamachari Faito!
I really struggled to place this team. BMF has a top3 depth within the division (on par with Bralirwa and McCormick) but no leader that i love.
Spengler is a solid cobbler and Kuroeda, Marte and Hofstetter are interesting depth pieces that could surprise with the odd result due to their versatility.
Leemreize and Reis are two solid climbers with different profiles to cover most of the mountains and Abdurrahman and Quinn are strong secondary guys. There are further (more attacking) climbers to accompany them and/or some solid tt guys to help Reis, Abdurrahman and Quinn in stage races with a TTT.
Eriksson and Lagane is a very interesting duo of puncheurs. Im not sure how well they work together but both have done decently in CT last year.
Finally the team has a bunch of sprinters. Most notably Hopkins who should be very solid but also more than a handful of other guys to send more than just one sprinter to every sprint stage on the schedule. Individually, none of them is great but as a group they can collect results throughout the year.
Where does that leave the squad? The squad should be far too strong to relegate. It reminds me a lot of the former Kraftwerk teams that consistently did fairly well due to their team depth. Is it strong enough to promote? I also dont think so because none of the leaders looks convincing enough to me but i also wouldnt be shocked if they enter the promotion fight. Just a lot of uncertainty from my side when it comes to them.
13. Tryg - Eni
Ovsyannikov is back! With Johannessen and Walls they have too more leaders that have been very solid in PCT last year but the deciding factor for this team is how well Ovsya will do. I have him behind Girmay and Per in the division - if he can get his fair share of wins (which is absolutely possible), they can enter the promotion fight.
Sheehan and Adria are also fairly unique profiles who can surprise but their impact should be considerably lower than the other three leaders.
14. Trans Looney Tunes
Trans Looney Tunes have made the next step to establish themselves as a PCT regular squad. Padun, Liu, Govekar, Tediashvili is a really solid leadership group with good support for all of them. The team has a few interesting riders with scoring upside like Bettiol or Mavrikakis behind them as well.
I dont agree with the decision to carry a (weak TTT) setup but maybe it can help Mavrikakis to get a few other points in certain races.
The team looks like a good midtable team. I'm not loving the leaders too much but the team is well built to get the most out of them.
15. Duvel - Tsingtao
Duvel has a great leader duo in Benoot and Faglum Karlsson and good support for both of them. A third sort-of-leader is Hesters who was entirely used as a leadout last year and might struggle as a leader.
Lyu, Van Wilder and Thomas have interesting profiles as secondary riders but i struggle to see any of them getting big scores in.
This looks to me like a (lower) midtable team that will be glad when they dont have too much to worry about relegation.
16. Bianchi Enel
Bianchi is a team filled to the max with riders i love - at times it felt like Bianchi and Evonik shared the same shortlist during transfers. The team had a major focus on signing several strong talents with Belletta, Raccagni, Chesini or Penhoet all looking great for the future but for the present, they dont help much.
Van der Poel, Moscon,, Lapeira, Stavrakakis and Van Poppel is a solid group of leaders. I would have a few question marks about doubling up on hills and cobbles but if i trust someone to have tested it extensively, its this team.
Ultimately, i think this team will be happy if they dont get relegated due to the massive investment into talents.
17. Everesting
Latour is a stage racer with a long history of solid performances. Even after a first decline, he should be great at PCT level. Errazkin got some training which moves him up in the hills competition. I dont love him as a leader but maybe he can surpass my expectations?
Only other thinng worth highlighting is the sprinter duo of Adomaitis and Willwohl. Two solid sprinters that will get some results but they are also nothing special compared to the rest of the division.
I see them in the Sauber position of past years: A strong leader that could see them stay just above the relegation fight but its getting close to the wire.
18. Riders of Rohan
Rohan has a bit of everything. A solid sprinter (Bol), two solid stage racers (Habtemichael, 2nd decline Eastman), a sprinty puncheur (Narvaez), an alright cobbler (Uhlig) and a good TTT setup that goes well with their stage racers. None of them have enough quality to be great PCT leaders but maybe the sum of all of them can be enough to stay up.
19. Ethiopian Airlines
Ethiopian has lots of mediocre options for mountains and hills with Formolo, Gladysh and Gebrezhabihier amongst others there. None of them is likely to really move the needle when it comes to the relegation fight so all eyes are on Caleb Ewan.
I think they need at least 1000 points from him if they want to stay up and he is by far the best sprinter in the division and has the potential to get those. However, i dont see the dominant train that you'd want to build around him with Gross - Sanikwathi as possibly the best train they have and for that reason, i think they are going down.
20. Lotto-Caloi
Min, Buitrago and Girdlestone is an alright trio for the mountains with great climbing depth behind it with five more Joel Ponce clones in the squad. But there really isnt much else going on here. Cherkasov can do ome damage in flat classics. The TTT team with Logan Currie can help the stage racers to some results but i really dont see enough point scources to stay up.
20. Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Eiking and Bjerg are two nice leaders. But behind them its getting dark. Hvideberg, Vingegaard and Waersted all look nice but i dont see any of them as a strong enough leader to stand on their own as a leader.
It's a large squad with too many filler riders who are seemingly only signed because they are born in the right place but dont have a real role to the team (just yet). Erik Madsen is the epitome of that. He doesnt have any role in the squad and even once maxed, he will be quite useless. I could ask the same about other riders like Loland too. I suspect that this will lead the team back to the CT.
22. SparkNZ - Liquigas Pro Cycling
It's the team of Carlos Rodriguez. Unfortunatelly, thats all there is as a scorer. Coquard was let go during renewals and instead the team went with Bonifazio and Prasad to fill the gap. Especially Bonifazio seems like a guy whose first decline hit him hard.
For me, Spark is an obvious team to go down and i have very little hope they can stay up this year.
