I already posted this in the Lazy Predictions thread but I would like to get a few more participations than I have so far, so I'm taking Caspi's recommendation and make this its own thread.
The concept of the preview is pretty simple: You participate in a survey where two random teams are paired against each other and you choose which of them will finish higher in the final 2026 rankings. You'll get 20 pairs for each division and as more people participate and more teams get paired against each other, each team will have a win rate that will determine the final prediction rankings.
You can participate multiple times to get more pairs (the pairs are random every time), and please feel free to. But of course it's even better if as many different people as possible participate to get the most perspectives and viewpoints. The median duration for one survey last year was just one minute, though that of course depends on how deeply you think through each pairing.
To make it easier to compare, I built a small Excel sheet that allows you to view any two teams within a division side by side. Download/create a copy and the Division and the two Teams become available as dropdown menu options.
Is there a number of times each individual manager would ideally participate? Like i dont want to do it 100 times because then my picks are too impactful on the final outcome?
Is there a number of times each individual manager would ideally participate? Like i dont want to do it 100 times because then my picks are too impactful on the final outcome?
Currently I have 10 PT surveys, 14 PCT surveys and 19 CT surveys, though I can't see if multiple surveys are from the same people. The percentage you want to take is up to you I can give some updates throughout the next days so you can have a feeling as to how impactful each individual survey is.
We're at 19 surveys done for PT, 24 for PCT and 31 for CT. Already more than last year for every division, which is cool, but the more the better, of course
One last bump, I plan to post the results by Monday. 27/28/35 participations for PT/PCT/PT at the moment, would be cool to get a few more Median duration per survey has been 1 minute so far!
So then, here are the results. First off, I unfortunately only noticed when exporting the results that in the free version of the tool, only the first 25 surveys are included in the analysis, so apologies to everyone who took part after that. 900€ for a year of premium membership feels a bit much though I'll see if I find another platform for next year.
That said, with 25 surveys in the analysis, there were a total of 500 pairings per division. For PT and PCT, this means that each team was presented on average 45 times, while in CT, each team was presented on average 56 times. As mentioned before, the following results show the percentages of those duels that each team "won".
CT:
Team
Win%
1st
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
94,67
2nd
SEE Turtles
82,14
3rd
Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie
80,36
4th
DeNA RoadStars
78,26
5th
Deutsche WindGuard
74,47
6th
Karthago
69,23
7th
IESE ProCycling Team
55,17
8th
IncaLine Pro Cycling
54,72
9th
Euskotren - Pays Basque
41,07
10th
Air New Zealand-Prada
38,18
11th
Tafjord Kraft
37,88
12th
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
34,62
13th
Fincantieri - Grand Seiko
33,33
14th
Parmalat - Croatia
24,19
15th
THE ONE - Fox God
23,64
16th
Billstedt-Horn
16,67
17th
Brandt Cycling Team
4,35
JEWA Tirol are the clear favorites with a decent gap to the next tier consisting of SEE Turtles, Banco Vaticano and DeNA RoadStars. Deutsche Windguard and Karthago are on the fringes of the main promotion favorites, then there's a steep dropoff to IESE and Incaline in 7th and 8th place.
Towards the bottom of the table, there's limited confidence in Parmalat - Croatia and THE ONE - Fox God, with Billstedt-Horn and Brandt as clear favorites for the last two spots.
PCT:
Team
Win%
1st
Team UBS - EDP
87,50
2nd
Bralirwa - Cegeka
86,67
3rd
Philips - Hero
84,44
4th
Sauber Petronas Racing
82,93
5th
Jura GIANTS
82,22
6th
Zwift - Newton Foundation
75,47
7th
McCormick Pro Cycling
70,59
8th
Grieg-Maersk
63,27
9th
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
59,52
10th
Bianchi Enel
54,55
11th
Bacharu Mamachari Faito!
54,35
12th
Minions
53,70
13th
Trans Looney Tunes
52,00
14th
Peugeot
42,50
15th
Duvel-Tsingtao
40,00
16th
Tryg - ENI
30,43
17th
Riders of Rohan
26,92
18th
Lotto-Caloi
20,41
19th
Ethiopian Airlines
13,16
20th
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
10,53
21st
Everesting
9,30
22nd
SparkNZ - Liquigas Pro Cycling
5,88
In PCT, there's a fairly firm Top 5 group of promotion favorites, consisting of UBS and Bralirwa as the Top 2, with Philips, Sauber and Jura GIANTS very much in the same tier. Zwift and McCormick are the two teams that are closest contenders in the extended promotion battle.
Consistent with many individual predictions, there's a deep middle of the pack, roughly from 8th to 15th, as well as a pretty defined bottom 4 of Ethiopean, Gjensidige, Everesting and SparkNZ. Lotto-Caloi, Riders of Rohan and Tryg - ENI are in the battle for (or against?) the final relegation spot.
PT:
Team
Win%
1st
King Power
100,00
2nd
Rabobank
90,48
3rd
Evonik - ELKO
89,13
4th
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
80,56
5th
Polar
72,09
6th
Assa Abloy
69,23
7th
Cedevita
65,63
8th
Indosat Ooredoo
64,00
9th
ELCO - ABEA
62,07
10th
MOL Cycling Team
60,53
11th
Specialized
56,41
12th
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
50,00
13th
Hunter Valley Cycling
42,86
14th
Xero Racing
42,55
15th
Aker - AB InBev
30,00
16th
Fastned
26,19
17th
DK Zalgiris
21,43
18th
Bolt - Eesti
19,44
19th
cycleYorkshire
19,15
20th
Los Pollos Hermanos
14,29
21st
Gazelle
11,90
22nd
Ekoi - Renault
4,76
Last year, Evonik had a 100% win rate and ultimately made good on that preseason favorite status, being crowned as the PT champ at the end of the season. That pressure is now on King Power, who are also the consensus expected division winner. Rabobank and Evonik are clear favorites for the other two podium spots, with Carlsberg sort of in a tier of their own in projected 4th place.
No clear tier breaks from Polar in 5th to MOL in 10th or maybe even Tinkoff in 12th place, all of those with a win rate of 50% or more. The relegation battle starts likely with Aker in 15th place, even if they and Fastned are still a bit above the remaining teams. DK Zalgiris, Bolt - Eesti and cycleYorkshire are very close together ahead of the bottom of LPH, Gazelle and Ekoi, who have been the consensus bottom three in all previews, similar to the respective teams in PCT.
Last year, this community preview was pretty good for the CT division compared to individual predictions, mediocre for PCT and the worst by some margin for PT. I'm curious to see how it shakes out this time. Thank you very much to everyone who participated!
Thanks for putting this together! Always interesting methodology. You can see how it usually leads to clear favorites and least favorites, but also where the disagreements pop up (PCT).
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I can give some updates throughout the next days so you can have a feeling as to how impactful each individual survey is.
I'll see if I find another platform for next year.
