Although I’m new to the ManGame I decided to build a model to evaluate how strong my team was compared to the rest of the CT division, post-transfers. Having done so, I figured it would be a waste to keep the analysis to myself. So below I have i) an overall tier list with qualitative discussion and evaluation, ii) per-race domain (GC, Hills, Sprints, ITT, TTT, Cobbles) tier lists, and iii) my semi-principled tiered predictions for the season.
As a very quick overview of the quantitative methodology, the model works by scoring riders in the given disciplines and then composing those into an overall score for the team. As part of that process, the model includes a number of adjustments to handle things like:
Relative Strength: you’ll benefit more from being the best cobbles team than the fifth-best TT team, even if you’re technically stronger in the latter.
Team Leadership: a 77 HI rider gives more weight to a domain score if they’re the best the team has, compared to if they’re third-best and the two better puncheurs can saturate the available hilly race days.
Scheduling: teams are assumed to race the best distribution of races for them based on their roster, not incorporating factors like nationality, and the quality of competition goes up in HC and C1 races.
I really want to emphasize the interaction of scheduling and leadership: a lot of the potentially counterintuitive results below are due to the model’s assessment that certain teams will lack the necessary leader race days to maximize their points return.
While reading, remember that within a given tier teams are listed alphabetically.
Caveats:
- There are some manual model design, adjustment, and parameterizations decisions I had to ballpark. I’m a very experienced PCM player, but the ManGame has a lot of stat lines with distributions which don’t regularly appear in normal databases. So there is a very good chance the model is suboptimal in general, and in particular mis-rates riders who are unusual.
- I did not have the time to run a backtest on previous years. I feel pretty good about the overall approach, but it is not meaningfully validated.
So overall I have only moderate confidence in these rankings and predictions. But with that said, to have a properly engaging style I’m not going to equivocate every sentence of the writeup.
So without further ado, onto the overall rankings.
First up is the cream of the CT, a pair of teams the model is certain will be near the top of the standings come season’s end.
Tier I (The Elites): JEWA - Tirol, SEE Turtles
- The list starts and could very well end with JEWA - Tirol, which the model views as the best team in the division, the plurality favorite for the title, and just about a straight lock for promotion. This team has elite veteran leadership and strong depth across every terrain (Yates and Kelderman in the hills, Boudat and Losch in the sprints, Stüssi for the climbs and GC, Orue for the cobbles, and Lammertink for the TTs). Wins may not actually be all that common beyond Yates since they are not purely the best in most terrains, but a constant string of podiums and stacked Top-10s scoring points no matter the parcours should lead to a strong haul across the entire season.
- SEE Turtles projects out only just behind their fellow Tier I traveler, trading a bit of breadth in the cobbles and the top-end of GC competitions (but with the still quite capable Osorio) for more peak strength in the hills (McCarthy, Nikiema, and Watson) and in the (team) time trials (gestures broadly at basically the entire roster) while maintaining an elite sprint (Kennett). With just about an equally high floor it would take a poor season for them to fail to promote, and they should keep JEWA more than honest when it comes to the title race itself.
The next tier down is composed of three teams that the model rates as each being the best in a specific domain. Should the team dominate their choice area, then they’ll likely assure themselves of promotion and could quickly take up a strong position for an overall CT victory. Should they fall flat in their speciality, however, then the glass could shatter and the bottom could drop out.
Within this tier are two subtiers, which differ meaningfully in both ceiling and floor. For the team in II.A, a dominant season in their preferred terrain would not only lock up a Top-5 but make them a serious challenger for the overall title, while a mediocre season still probably ends with them in the mix for promotion. For the two teams in II.B, in contrast, a dominant season would likely lead to promotion but still a finish short of victory overall, while a bad or even just mediocre season could cause them to tumble down well into the bottom half of the division.
Tier II (The Glass Cannons)
A:Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie
- When analyzing Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, the best GC team in the division, one lands on the perhaps unexpected perspective that Guillermo Beltran is likely to be the single most important rider in the CT (and we’ll discuss the only other rider even remotely in that particular conversation shortly). The calculus leading to this conclusion is quite simple: Neilson Powless is the best rider in CT, and is going to rack up points in the meager race days available to him. The ability of Beltran to add to that total in the races that Powless will be forced to skip will almost certainly be the difference between success and failure for the Vatican squad. If Beltran scores consistently well, then Banco could very well win the title. But as the team’s other leaders have distinct weaknesses (Mayer’s lack of stamina, Jele’s one-dimensionality, Sütterlin’s poor terrain stats), if Beltran struggles and that trio don’t greatly overperform, then this team could miss promotion even in the case of individual Powless domination.
B:Air New Zealand-Prada, Tafjord Kraft
- With Air New Zealand-Prada it’s not even really about the hills, where they project out as the best in the division, but it’s about the one rider responsible for that ranking: Alexey Lutsenko. Lutsenko is the only rider who might give Beltran a run for his money on importance, resting in the shadow of the Chilean only because of the lower ceiling for his team overall. On paper, Lutsenko is the best puncheur of the division and well supported by Joel Yates, but the team also dropped 300k each of transfer fee and salary on the veteran, leaving the squad as thin as can be elsewhere. If the Kazakh dominates the hills in his limited race days this team should finish no worse than 5th. If he fails to show up, 15th is maybe the more likely outcome. The team has no meaningful presence in the sprints, cobblestones, or time-trials, though it retains some real quality for general classifications (Fabbro and Cort Nielsen). It’s pure feast or famine on a gamble that could very well lead to promotion, but also easily the greatest risk of disaster within the division as a whole.
- For Tafjord Kraft, the fastest sprint team in the division with Stalberg and Page, it’s all about that fine line between excellence and dominance. This team will also mix it up with a very deep if never quite elite squad in the hills (Blouwe, Lilovski, Kanepejs, Svab, Stedman) and a strong lead time trialist (Belevics). Pira could score as well in the high mountains, despite his lacking secondary stats. But while wholesale domination in the fast finishes could lead to promotion, good but unspectacular results will likely consign the team to midtable. Because of the additional breadth provided by the hill and time trial squad leadership, this team probably has a reasonably high floor, but also the most contested route to their ceiling for any Tier II squad.
Next up is Tier III, where things get quite messy. No fewer than eight (8) teams are viewed by the model as being near-equivalent heading into the season. The small distinctions the model draws are well within the realm where even minor tweaks upend the ordering, and where elements like optimality of race selection and assignment, breakaway luck, crash misfortune, and the small oddities of how PCM interprets stat combinations could make the difference between a genuine challenge for the Top 5 and a fall well down into the bottom half of the division rankings. None of these teams should be expecting promotion, but none should be treating it as entirely impossible either, especially if any or all of the Tier II teams shatter when the rubber meets the road.
If you squint at the model, you can just make out three subtiers, which we sort into here. But it is hard to stress enough just how tight the middle is looking: each of these teams, from III.A to III.C, could finish anywhere between 5th and 13th and it would be well within expectation.
Tier III (The Muddy Middle)
A:Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
- For Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh the model slightly sticks its neck out, considering them a few ticks better than the rest of the pack. Looking at their roster you can just make out why, as they lack for competitive talent nowhere and have a potential race winner for the flatter cobbles in Logan Owen. In the hills Azman leads a capable team that should score regularly, while he and Rachid should place as well in the climbs and GC. Vanderpool leads a quality time-trial squad, while Sureda is one of the better sprinters in the division for races that lead in with bumpy terrain, and he will likely pick up some valuable placings in pure bunch kicks as well. If Owen and Sureda can deliver in the races for which they’re favorites and the rest of the squad clean up with regular points hauls, then the team is well placed to force their way into the promotion conversation.
B:Billstedt-Horn, Deutsche WindGuard, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, IESE ProCycling Team, Karthago
- Billstedt-Horn are built around the climbing excellence of Galta and Schleck paired with the German sprinting duo of Bauhaus and Walscheid. In the hills (Asgreen) and cobbles (Stallaert) they will also have a solid top-end presence, but without strong depth. If Galta can roll back the clock for one last ride and the sprinters can deliver regularly, then the points will come. But the GC and sprint domains are well-contested this season, and so a lot may come down to Stallaert finding the groove for the cobbled classics and giving the team a solid base to build upon.
- For Deutsche WindGuard, after the top-tier cobble leadership of Wisniowski everything is about finishing fast. Kamberaj and Silva will mix it up in the sprints, and the hill squad features some of the fastest finishers among the punchers in the CT peloton in Quita, Oliveira, and Lienhard, who are further aided by a deep supporting cast. But despite their strong kicks, none of the three are quite elite on the pure hills themselves. This makes the German debutants hard to evaluate: if the hill classics of the CT calendar regularly come down to reduced group sprints, then Deutsche might be racing the PCT hill classics in 2027. If, on the other hand, the cream of the division can create separation before the finales, then the team may be asking too much of Wisniowski and their sprint train to get in the mix for promotion.
- The likely story of how Fincantieri - Grand Seiko (disclaimer: my team) would vault into the Top 5 is pretty straightforward: it requires Tomohiro Kinoshita, rather than Lutsenko, being cast in the role of “aging ManGame puncheur royalty who finds one last dominant ride at the CT level on the way towards retirement.” On paper Lutsenko is better at this point in their respective declines, but he’s also more than 3x more expensive (or 6x, if including the transfer fee). As such the Italo-Japanese team is much deeper, featuring a strong, if never elite, supporting cast in the hills (Langellotti), the climbs and GC (Masnada and Smith), the time trials (Onodera), and the sprints (Aquilani). If Kinoshita lands his punches with Lutsenko, some breakaways come in, and the rest of the team’s veteran leadership show up for consistent placings, then Fincantieri could find themselves sliding into the Top 5 over Air New Zealand and the rest of the muddy middle. If Kinoshita falls flat, however, then the team will likely lack the top-end results needed to climb towards the top-end of the standings.
- IESE ProCycling Team has the misfortune of possessing what should be a dominant team in a specific domain (time-trialing, led by Kukrle and Fernandes), that is nonetheless exceeded by the sheer quality and quantity of SEE Turtles’ roster in that speciality. They are also elite in the climbs and strong in the GC (Schlegel supported by Hocevar), but are more limited in the hills and are basically non-entities in the cobbles and sprints. Without the ability to rack up points through time trial dominance, Schlegel will carry a huge burden trying to drag this team into the Top 5. In effect, the model penalizes both IESE and our next team, Karthago, for the same reason: they have one of the best riders in CT (Schlegel and Natnael Tesfatsion) who nonetheless may simply not have the necessary race days to cover the breadth of terrains the team needs them to perform in to compete for a title.
- Karthago is unique as a new team with a veteran manager, and is built around a very elite if never quite dominant crew of leaders: Natnael Tesfatsion leads capably in all of the hills, climbs, and GC, joined in the latter two by the legendary Chen Shikai, as well as complemented in the sprints by El Sabbahi and the cobbles by Neilands. If all ride to their standard then the team should place very well with good frequency and pick up a steady stream of points that will vault them into the Top 5 race. If more than one disappoint, however, it could be difficult for them to find the necessary returns as the team lacks scoring depth.
C:DeNA RoadStars, Euskotren - Pays Basque
- For DeNA RoadStars, the major question is how well they’re able to counterprogram the newly trained Steff Cras against Powless. Maybe the only CT rider able to keep up with the American in the high mountains between his climbing and energy statistics, Powless will nonetheless destroy him in the time trials should they ever go head-to-head. But if Cras is instead consistently placed up again Beltran and the rest of the CT’s GC elite, then a healthy return might be on the offing. With ample support from Carcueva and an (also nicely trained) sprint contender in Ganjkhanlou, a strong Cras year could be just enough to vault the team towards the top of the middle bracket and the promotion squabble.
- Euskotren - Pays Basque bet big on an expensive investment in Matus Stocek for the hills, where he’ll be ably supported by Lafay and Berthet who can also mix it up in the GC for routes with few if any time trial kilometers. However, this crew of punchers while elite is not dominant, and the rest of the squad lacks top-end talent except for Politt in individual time trials. An exceptional hills campaign with some GC surprises could lead to a quality standings finish, but the team cannot afford to struggle in any of their preferred terrains.
Finally we get to the last tier of teams. Each of them have some domains where they’ll be scrappy and should be able to score some points consistently within. But all nonetheless appear to lack either the top-end excellence or the breadth needed to make a run for the top half of the division, unless perhaps some extreme luck intervenes.
Tier IV: The Scrappers
A:IncaLine Pro Cycling, Parmalat - Croatia
- IncaLine Pro Cycling struggles with a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none problem, with an extremely deep team that nonetheless lacks top-end contenders on most terrains. Burke, Rohendi, and Prado in the GC, Tivani in the sprints, De Gendt on the cobbles, and Burke and De La Cruz Chapulin in the hills are all quite strong riders, but other than Burke they nonetheless are all at minimum a tick or two down from the top in their respective focuses. No team in the CT might have a better group of riders in the #6 thru #15 spots on the roster, however, so breakaways could be a lifeline for the team to find a sufficient return to climb in the standings.
- For Parmalat - Croatia too much rides on Bram Welten, one of the best sprinters in the division who especially excels in sprint classics with a lightly cobbled parcours. But there just aren’t enough of those races, and Montenegro and Lazkano in the hills and Ciccone in the climbs will likely struggle to bring in the remaining points necessary to drive for promotion.
B:Brandt Cycling Team, THE ONE - Fox God
- The American Brandt Cycling Team suffer from their focus away from the hills and sprints without Powless-level dominance to lean on, as those terrains ultimately make up the bulk of the CT calendar. Didier Merchan and the legendary Taylor Phinney will show well in the climbs and GC, while Richardson should be an entity on the cobbles and Daniel joins Phinney in leading a strong time trial squad. Expect some impressive results in general classifications and time trial stages, but with too few of them to make the difference given the way the calendar shapes up.
- A similar problem is faced by THE ONE - Fox God. This team has considerable depth in the climbs and GC (takes a deep breath Verschaeve, Andriafenomananiaina, Petelin, Shirota, Raileanu), but none of that talent is elite let alone true race winners. Other than Ulloa for the cobbles they also lack notable strength in the remaining disciplines.
Meanwhile, here are the per-race domain tier lists:
GC
Tier I: Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie Tier II: DeNA RoadStars, IESE ProCycling Team, JEWA - Tirol, Karthago Tier III: Air New Zealand-Prada, Billstedt-Horn, Brandt Cycling Team, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, IncaLine Pro Cycling, Parmalat - Croatia, SEE Turtles, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, Tafjord Kraft, THE ONE - Fox God Tier IV: Deutsche WindGuard, Euskotren - Pays Basque
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Sprint
Tier I: Billstedt-Horn, DeNA RoadStars, Deutsche WindGuard, JEWA - Tirol, Karthago, Parmalat - Croatia, SEE Turtles, Tafjord Kraft Tier II: Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, IncaLine Pro Cycling, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh Tier III: Air New Zealand-Prada, Brandt Cycling Team, Euskotren - Pays Basque, THE ONE - Fox God Tier IV: Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, IESE ProCycling Team
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Hills
Tier I: Air New Zealand-Prada, Euskotren - Pays Basque, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, JEWA - Tirol, SEE Turtles Tier II: Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, Deutsche WindGuard, IESE ProCycling Team, IncaLine Pro Cycling, Karthago, Parmalat - Croatia, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, Tafjord Kraft Tier III: Billstedt-Horn, DeNA RoadStars Tier IV: Brandt Cycling Team, THE ONE - Fox God
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ITT
Tier I: Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, IESE ProCycling Team, JEWA - Tirol, SEE Turtles Tier II: Brandt Cycling Team, Euskotren - Pays Basque, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, Tafjord Kraft Tier III: Billstedt-Horn, DeNA RoadStars, Deutsche WindGuard, IncaLine Pro Cycling, Karthago, Parmalat - Croatia, THE ONE - Fox God Tier IV: Air New Zealand-Prada
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TTT
Tier I: IESE ProCycling Team, SEE Turtles Tier II: Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, Brandt Cycling Team, DeNA RoadStars, Euskotren - Pays Basque, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, JEWA - Tirol, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, Tafjord Kraft Tier III: Deutsche WindGuard, IncaLine Pro Cycling, Karthago, THE ONE - Fox God Tier IV: Air New Zealand-Prada, Billstedt-Horn, Parmalat - Croatia
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Cobbles
Tier I: Deutsche WindGuard, JEWA TIROL Cycling Team, Karthago, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh Tier II: Billstedt-Horn, Brandt Cycling Team, DeNA RoadStars, Euskotren - Pays Basque, IncaLine Pro Cycling, THE ONE - Fox God Tier III: Air New Zealand-Prada, Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, IESE ProCycling Team, Parmalat - Croatia, SEE Turtles, Tafjord Kraft Tier IV: Fincantieri - Grand Seiko
On the basis of the model, I’m also willing to put forth my own personal predictions for the coming season. These combine the principled quantitative analysis above with a bit of loose prognostication (and, honestly, maybe a little bit of motivated reasoning) on my own part. The major factor here is generally assuming teams are slightly suboptimal with scheduling and rider assignment.
As before, within each group teams are listed alphabetically.
Winner
JEWA - Tirol
2nd-5th
Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie, Deutsche WindGuard, Karthago, SEE Turtles
6th-10th
Air New Zealand-Prada, DeNA RoadStars, Fincantieri - Grand Seiko, Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, Tafjord Kraft
11th-15th
Billstedt-Horn, Brandt Cycling Team, Euskotren - Pays Basque, IESE ProCycling Team, IncaLine Pro Cycling
Personally, i like your personal predictions more than your model. For me, it seemed as if the model put a little too much emphasis on the main stats and less emphasis on well rounded back up stats and support leading to it underrating riders like Quita and De Gendt and overrating someone like Stalberg. But thats just my read of the division and the truth will lie on the road.
The final tier prediction posted looks really good though.
I found this very and easy to read. No-idea if the output will be accurate, the CT is really hard to predict this year. Like Knockout, maybe a bit much focus on key stats and not enough on support/secondaries, but you have thought through the general power ranking on the terrain to balance out expected results.
And of course the wildcard no-one knows about, how will dev teams impact any of this (quite right to stay away from trying to figure that out!).
The model actually weights secondary stats very heavily, but also treats primary stats non-linearly (there are some “cliffs” at certain cutoffs). The interplay between those two dynamics is definitely one of the things I’m least sure about on the quantitative side.
But overall scheduling efficiency and available RDs is really where the rankings shift around from just looking at direct stats.
I haven't spent any time looking at the CT division so this was a great intro to the season. Agree maybe too much credit to weaker back up guys - Jele and Schleck stuck out for me. The division does seem very open this year with some of the new teams really setting up well.
Gave this a first read at work and now a more detailed discovery through your view on the division. As you noted on mine, I think we see things overall similarly.
Obviously the two big standouts to me are Tafjord - can Stalberg really be a Perera or Manninen like figure this year? - and then Air New Zealand - Prada with their reliance on the hills. I never know what to do with prospective #1 riders in the hills and the sprints, as those seem to be a bit less predictive than the GC, cobbles, and time trials.
Big thank you for putting out such a well thought out preview. You've already brought so much to the game before even the first race and it's an absolute pleasure!
