As a fellow manager in the division, I obviously have a lot of thoughts about my competition in what feels like one of the heaviest hitting versions of the CT since I’ve been in the division. My ranking scale will be:
1. Title Candidate = Promotion should be assured, anything outside top 3 would be a disappointment
2. Promotion Candidate = Top 5 should be the goal, but anywhere Top 7 would be the expectation
3. Upset Pick = Probably closer to a Top 10 expectation, but should be a major thorn in the side of promotion candidates all season
4. Mid-Table = Generally reliable results, but reaching top 10 should be the goal versus expectation
5. Rebuild/Development = Sometimes, the cards are simply not in your favor and this might be that year for a points-only evaluation. Hopefully good rider development, race planning tactics, and a lot of fun come from the year
Forgive me for liking my team better than yours (oops) and I look forward to being proven wrong for many of these!
Air New Zealand-Prada
A team headlined by officially the second best rider in the division Alexey Lutsenko. A very top heavy team with the Kazakh, Fabbro, and Cort Nielsen, as well as a Joel Yates who has never really found his deserved success – success must come from the hills and the stage races. With basically no viable sprinter, time trialist, or cobble rider, they’ll also need to pray for KOM jerseys and breakaway wins throughout the season. Lots of good talents to develop and a better salary division than normal for this team, but still one with holes – especially if race planning doesn’t perfectly match their stars.
Verdict: Mid-Table: As much as I want to put in Upset Pick, I think that the points ceiling is simply too low to really expect a top 10 result. Lutsenko and Fabbro can both definitely cause problems for many teams, but not enough to guarantee this one’s success.
Banco Vaticano-Valkyrie
If Air New Zealand-Prada had the best rider, the Vatican squad has the clear best rider in Neilson Powless. 80MO/80TT is ungodly when you compare him to last year’s CT winner in Galta. Powless alone should be hoping for 600 points at least (rough estimate), with goals to win in places like Pologne and Norway, while also racking up victories in races like Herald Sun or Isle of Mann. There’s probably no rider tougher to plan than Powless with far too many good options and barely any race days. Anything less than a top 5 in any GC will be a disappointment for this team in Powless’s planning. A developed Mayer will fight in the hills with a great punch, while Jele and Beltran may also find some results. Sutterlin is the final major contributor, but who can absolutely beast some TT results along the way.
Verdict: Title Contender – A masterful Powless season could push them into promotion contention almost alone and there are definitely enough other pieces to pick up enough scoring to promote. Top 3 expectations here, although that’s not guaranteed if the engine doesn’t love the supporting leaders.
Billstedt-Horn
The first of our new teams for 2026 is absolutely one to look out for. Galta joins here in another declined state, but still with massive hopes for good GC results in every opportunity he takes on. Great energy stats are a good signal for this final season as a top rider. Bauhaus and Walscheid are both competitive in the right races and at 50,000 are major steals. Stallaert will be the X-factor for this team though as the CT cobble field has dramatically improved. A good sprint to close down races and sufficient stamina could lead him to be a major contributor, although things could flip the opposite way, too. Another small note on this team is a leader in every terrain minus time trialing. While not the favorite, they should almost always be in the GC fight wherever they go.
Verdict: Upset Pick – Things will need to go their way, but I think they can. I see this team as a very stable scoring team that should pick up the right points along the way.
Brandt Cycling Team
Lots of care for my mentee’s team (and a number of my former riders), but this should be an interesting season. Deep investments into Merchan and Phinney are high risk, medium reward as I simply can’t expect them to have the energy to hold onto the top climbing groups. Gregory Daniel should be their best rider at 77 TT and good hill for the right type of race. Abner Gonzalez pulled some good results last year as did Richardson, who is now even more one dimensional. Jacob Kelly as the primary sprinter probably won’t be strong enough to make an impact outside of a reduced sprint or two.
Verdict: Development: Some good talents to develop and a lot to pick up from how the games treat this lineup. Sadly, no one stands out as a consistent point scorer in the way one would hope, but I expect a few surprise standout results throughout the season.
DeNA RoadStars
Steff Cras must hate Neilson Powless… because otherwise, Cras would be sitting in line for an individual rankings win from my viewpoint. Some amazing energy stats may go a tad to waste in shorter races, but boy could he find himself some great results in a ToA if the risk is taken to go. Ganjkhanlou with some extra training love means good sprint depth. Carcueva should find good miscellaneous results and what is simply a deep overall team means they’ll nickel and dime their way toward the top of the leaderboard. Lots of fantastic talents to develop for what should be a killer 2027 season.
Verdict: Promotion Contender – throughout the transfer season I thought this was the team to beat, but I worry they won’t have a clear 2nd top 20 point scorer outside of Cras. No major weaknesses outside of a missing TT star.
Deutsche WindGuard
Boy does this team love a punchy sprinter! Oliveira, Quita, Rumac, Leinhard, Russo, and Drizners are all fantastic version of the same rider in my opinion, which could be amazing in terms of depth scoring OR could create trouble without a clear leader. Hopefully they’ve signed up for every hilly race on the calendar! Silva represents the sprinting cobble option to support the clear leader of this team Wisniowski. An absolute beast on the cobbles, I expect a fantastic result for him here. Maybe he’ll fade a tad in longer races, but not enough to worry me yet. Kamberaj has shown themselves well in this division before – let’s see what they can find this year. Almost forgot to mention Sanogo who is a perfect domestique to Wisniowski and should earn some results of their own.
Verdict: Upset Pick: I don’t have the stage racing faith in this team that I’d like to make them a promotion contender quite yet, but I think they’re the most likely to jump up of anyone in this category. Too many potential big scorers for none of them to hit. Will come down to race selection.
Euskotren-Pays Basque
Lots of talk about the Stocek training already this offseason and I’ll add myself to the list of non-fans, however, I choose that stance because I didn’t need another 79HI rider in the division! Overall, I think it was actually a good move and likely puts him in position for a fantastic season with such strong help behind him. The TT star in Politt will earn good points for the team as well, while I do think they’re missing a sprinter this season. Darbinyan took the wrong flights last season and I’m sure will be excited to actually race his preferred terrains in 2026.
Verdict: Upset Pick – My heart would love to give promotion contender, but I’m missing a climbing stage racer (is Berthet quite there?). Stocek, Lafay, and Darbinyan should be top riders though and put this team in a very dangerous position if teams above them struggle at all.
Fincantieri – Grand Seiko
Another new manager with a very solid team! Kinoshita stands out as the biggest star to me as a tried and true punchy rider, while folks like Langelloti, Aebi and Ludvigsson will be strong support in a very crowded CT hills department. Onodera leading the TT squad is a huge pickup while Masnada might be able to pull some surprises again this year alongside Smith. Both know how to win, but can they hold their own as new stars emerge in the division. Aqualani should be able to score an occasional sprint result, especially with his nice sprint.
Verdict: Mid-Table – I like most of the individual riders, but I’m missing one major star sprinter or stage racer. Should be a very good start for the ManGame career.
IESE ProCycling Team
Jose Fernandes is the first rider to peak my interest (what a surprise) as a fantastic TT option in tougher races. They could win mountain TT’s, get high results in hilly TT races, and even find themselves getting traditional stage race results with the right luck. Schlegel will attempt to hold the role Buitrago did in the division last year as the premier climber without a TT priority and that’s a great place to be. Kurkle will score points and the depth in climbing and TT squads means that in the right races, they will have great opportunities.
Verdict: Promotion Contender – Honestly, this team might be a bit weaker than others I have in the Upset Pick category, but I feel it in my gut. If only there was a capable sprinter to make use of the flat days, they might even push to title contender. Big risks here though!
IncaLine Pro Cycling
IncaLine should be seeing improvements over the 2025 season as they’ve filled out their team a tad more across the disciplines. Aime De Gendt has been mentioned as sneak pick for breakout rider in CT with capable cobbles, hills and deep energy reserves. Burke will be an interesting asset in the GC battles with his ungodly recovering and strength across also uphill climbs. His TT will manage losses compared to some of the rockstars in the division. De La Cruz Chapulin is good bang for your buck in a crowded hill competition, but should find good results. Tivani is the right type of sprinter to grab 4ths and 5ths throughout the stage races to make good use of every race day.
Verdict: Promotion Contender – I was right on the edge here, but I think this could be the year with good domestiques, strong leaders, and some diversified terrain where this team should really shine. Smart race planning is mandatory though and failures there could drop them even out of the top 10.
JEWA TIROL
Imagining this team with its loan-outs is something I feel very lucky to be able ignore for another season. But what you can’t ignore is a stacked team! Simon Yates is a beast in the hills – leaving no doubts of who will win a reduced sprint. Boudat is a contender for best sprinter in the division and has a killer prologue. Stussi is a rockstar climber when you ignore the two 80MO monsters who will likely skip most of the C2 calendar. Orue, Sulimov, and Losch can take cobble points at minimal investment. Lammertink is the 2nd best TTer in the division behind Powless. Basically everywhere, this team should be racking up points and such diverse strengths should mean leaders in every race.
Verdict: Title Contender – Not only contender, but I think our friends at JEWA TIROL are the likely favorites for the title. After such a narrow relegation, there should be zero doubt returning to PCT next season. Tough to say almost anything else.
Karthago
It’s a return to the ManGame for trekbmc and a very good team for that return is his reward. Tesfatsion will test his shape against the hill leaders of the division and should find some success in races like Euskal Bizikleta if we had to guess. El Sabbahi is another great regional leader who will find his way to great sprint results in many of the flat stage races. Shikai is probably the riskiest of the leaders, but 79MO and 74TT is tough to complain about. Neilands and Muhindo will hold down the cobbles to score midtable placings but make good use of those race days. Cerny may be the surprise standout if he can find suitable races and make it to the finish line with enough energy for a sprint.
Verdict: Mid-Table – While I like the leaders, I’m not sure I see any of them overperforming which leaves a lot of risk. This is probably the team with the widest variety in predictions throughout the division if I had to put an early guess. Could see anywhere from 5-13 being the result.
Parmalat – Croatia
Sadly this is not my favorite team – especially because it features two of my former Ecuadorian riders. Montenegro is the best returner from 2025 changing hands to Parmalat, but I expect to greatly underperform to last year. The division is much deeper at the discipline and he showed weakness in longer races due to his stamina concerns. Pairing with Lazkano heightens those concerns for me, but the risk is worth taking for both. Ciccone should hold his own for top 10s, but nothing more and Welten has had some surprisingly good results throughout the year. Combine with Mestric and Roosen and the cobble team should be fine!
What brings me the most pause is probably renewals, with a number of riders who likely shouldn’t have made the return – including Molano and Consonni. The more I look at this team, the more I actually do like it, but I think the risks are there.
Verdict: Mid-Table – I just can’t see the riders they have overperforming from last year and without that, there’s only so much hope for major movements up the standings. Should be a thorn in others’ sides throughout the season though.
SEE Turtles
It’s my team… and I think we’re the best team we’ve ever assembled. Kennett rivals Boudat and Kamberaj as the best sprinters in the division and should be a contender for multiple GC wins. Nikiema and McCarthy team up for a very solid hill team which will always be represented at the end of races. Osorio developed, but will be a risk throughout the season, with not quite enough purposeful race days for the Colombian. Now comes the TTT squad. Frankly, no one is doing it quite like us! 5 TTers at 77 or above is unmatched in the division and even rivals the best of PCT. And then in prologues we can put and entire 8 rider lineup at 76 or above!
The squad is certainly not perfect as a sprint leader can miss the mark, McCarthy and Nikiema are not the favorites for really any race and Osorio is a 2nd tier climber compared to the best in the division. However, there’s enough races that favor our strengths (GC + TTT), sprint + prologues, and hilly opportunities where we think this is really our year. We’ll very much await other predictions as ours is clearly biased.
Verdict: Title Contender
Simba Cement – Tanga Fresh
Let’s start with Schomber, the best rider under 72 overall in the world (don’t fact check me) as he consistently crushes competition in the prologues and holding on for a great results. But beyond the prologue legend, this team goes with a quad attack in the hills with Azman, McKenna, Turgis, and Jung. I’m not sure who to really look at as the leader. Turgis probably, but with lowered stats and an extreme fighter, I worry he’ll over exert himself too early. Rachid joins as the GC leader with a strong TTT background for the right races, but probably not world changing results. Owen and Yechezkel will be the x-factors with their cobble campaign likely being what determines this team’s results. Sureda will represent in the sprints.
Verdict: Upset Pick -Another team returning to the division from PCT, this looks more like a rebuild than auto promote. No real wasted pieces in the team, but I’m missing which riders will be top 30 in the division. Hopefully it’s two or three, but who knows. Probably underselling this team more than I mean to, but going to hold to my views however delusional it may be.
Tafjord Kraft
The Scandanavian outfit is taking on new leadership from Colombian in the form of Pira, a one dimensional climber. Pira misses races like Tour de Vineyards where you could do a single140km unipuerto stage to gain a huge race result and I simply don’t see races that suit him. Page will thus need to lead in the sprints, while it’s a packed hill squad. Only 3 riders in the squad have under 70 hill and 8 have 75 or over. Hopefully they can divide into the proper race days, but I’m fearing a bit of oversaturation in that element with not many ready to tackle the heavier medium mountain days. Stalberg is an 80/76 sprinter to join Page – if they can divide race days well, I think Stalberg could gain lots of points on the stage race days. Belevics will also deliver consistent scoring in the TTs.
Verdict: Rebuild – Oops, probably not the best representation here, but I think this is the start of a rebuild and there will be a ton of evaluation of which riders succeed and which miss the mark. Simply too many cooks in the one kitchen, when they need to fill a full food court. Great vision for young riders though so finding the right team for next year should be good. Table result likely higher than others rated more highly, but I do feel like this is a slight miss.
The ONE – Fox God
Who is “the one fox god” of this team you ask? Truly, I don’t know who the leader is! Ulloa stands with Kuroeda and Malacarne in the cobbles, but none really seem quite ready to grab huge results. There’s lots of C-tier depth in stage racing, but who will get priority of Verschaeve, Andriafenomananiaina, Petelin, Raileanu and Shirota? Petelin grabbed some top 10s, but never really challenged for wins, which the team desperately needs. No sprinter again is a major problem while a missing TT and hill leader also makes things difficult.
Verdict: Rebuild – There’s some really cool riders and roleplaying, but I think there may need to be a bit more pre-season planning. I look forward to seeing good results, but probably not enough to propel this team to success.
Combined Rankings:
Title Contenders:
1.JEWA TIROL
2.SEE Turtles
3.Banco Vaticano – Valkyrie
Podium Contenders:
4.DeNA RoadStars
5.IncaLine Pro Cycling
6.IESE ProCyling Team
Very nice preview, and very hard to arrest you on anything here. We will (naturally) have some different rankings but I see no reason that the ranking wont end up pretty similar to this
I like your style and I like your thoughts! Now you just need to find time for the other divisions
Fantastic read! Really enjoyed your analysis - a couple teams I didn't realise were such big threats and I'm glad somebody else has been wondering about who The One Fox God is.
Mostly agree with your rankings, I think the only one I'd place much different is Deutsch Windguard, but I think you acknowledged they could easily jump a lot higher and I also might be giving Oliveira too much statline coolness credit in terms of how many points he will score.
Think you've nailed my team pretty well, although I'm definitely hoping to fall a little higher up in the range you mentioned. I do think you're underrating Nielands a smidge, imo he's the best cobbles rider (by a fraction) so I'm hoping for a little better than midtable placing from him.
Thanks for starting the prediction season! I mostly second your reads (which might be bad for my motivation to actually write something for CT on top of pure rankings ), and it's especially cool to see you getting more and more confident in your verdicts after some seasons in the game
Some very good takes here. The teams where i disagree with the most are ones where you already hint at the possibility like you did with Karthago for example and i fully understand your reasoning there and said the same thing to trek earlier about a very wide range of possible outcomes for them (i think its closer to 3rd - 11th).
I like it, my model/me and you agree on the overall shape of the division I think, with some teams rising and falling based on relative strengths and the reasonable optimality of scheduling. You'll see my full predictions shortly, but at least for myself I'm a bit more optimistic that I'm in that Upset Pick range, due to my relative strength in the hills and the extent to which that is such a huge chunk of the CT calendar.
Feels like every team in the division is strong in the hills, so that could get exciting. Also love the SEE Turtles TT obsession, feel like you have taken Glanbia's path to a whole new level. I am sure Mac is routing for you.
), and it's especially cool to see you getting more and more confident in your verdicts after some seasons in the game 
