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Tour of Japan - Discussion
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 02-04-2026 07:31
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World Champion
Posts: 13727
Joined: 05-08-2008
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There's really something for everyone in Japan: two flat rated stages though there is some climbing to be done in them, two hilly stages, one mountain time - trial and one short opening time - trial.
Former winners,  Reis and  Eastman are here so they have to be looked at when talking about GC favorites. But, it's really hard to make a prediction of what it will take to win this race. Do you have to be a top climber? Yes, definitely. But will the time - trial have an impact on stage 5 or will the hilly stages be selective? Not losing too much time in the prologue could prove to be important too, depending on what kind of gaps the harder stages will bring.
From the top climbers present here,  Ranaweera joins the list of those who can also time - trial well next to the two previous winners.  Ardila is not exactly good against the clock, but he is by far the best puncheur from the climbers and he will be looking to gain some time in the 3rd and 4th stage.  Elosegui and  Pira are not really great on hills or time - trials (especially the Colombian), but they hope that won't affect their GC too much and it will be their climbing abilities that will make the difference.
| Rider | FL | MT | MM | HI | TT | ST | RS | SP | AC | PR | | Eastman | 69 | 81 | 76 | 70 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 61 | 68 | 72 | | Ardila | 67 | 81 | 81 | 80 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 62 | 75 | 68 | | Ranaweera | 67 | 80 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 58 | 65 | 73 | | Reis | 69 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 77 | 75 | 50 | 63 | 75 | | Elosegui | 65 | 80 | 76 | 71 | 72 | 77 | 80 | 60 | 71 | 71 | | Pira | 63 | 80 | 76 | 71 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 60 | 69 | 63 |  Misbah | 68 | 79 | 75 | 70 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 62 | 68 | 74 |  Lasinis | 69 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 61 | 68 | 74 |  Faglum Karlsson | 71 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 60 | 68 | 79 |  Cras | 68 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 78 | 77 | 60 | 67 | 70 |  Choi | 69 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 73 | 57 | 65 | 72 |  Mavrikakis | 70 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 71 | 74 | 73 | 61 | 67 | 71 |
Looking at the top puncheur's climbing abilities when it come to the big mountains, only Ardila can hope for a good GC place.  Kelderman might be past his prime, but he will be giving the Colombian a run for his money. That is, if the hilly stages will prove to be hard enough, which looking at the profiles might not be the case.
So we move our attention to Demare, who will definitely be hoping for some soft hilly stages.  Montenegro, who took advantage of some soft hilly stages in Argentina to win the Tour of San Luis, is here as well and ready to prove that win was not a fluke.
| Rider | FL | MT | MM | HI | TT | ST | RS | SP | AC | PR | | Ardila | 67 | 81 | 81 | 80 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 62 | 75 | 68 | | Kelderman | 68 | 69 | 75 | 80 | 68 | 77 | 72 | 65 | 69 | 68 | | Edmondson | 69 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 63 | 73 | 70 | 69 | 74 | 63 | | Demare | 71 | 65 | 72 | 78 | 59 | 72 | 69 | 80 | 78 | 59 | | Azman | 69 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 63 | 69 | 72 | 65 | 75 | 64 | | Lazkano | 65 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 60 | 68 | 71 | 64 | 75 | 60 | | Duyvesteyn | 68 | 70 | 74 | 77 | 65 | 67 | 71 | 64 | 76 | 65 | | Montenegro | 69 | 70 | 74 | 77 | 64 | 71 | 73 | 64 | 74 | 64 | | Le Gac | 70 | 69 | 73 | 77 | 60 | 73 | 74 | 64 | 69 | 60 |  Kanepejs | 70 | 67 | 72 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 71 | 62 | 71 | 69 | | Senyenov | 70 | 62 | 70 | 77 | 63 | 68 | 73 | 68 | 73 | 63 |
Demare is the top sprinter here according to statistics and giving his abilities over hills, he has to be the main favorite for the green jersey. But, when it comes to stage wins it's always hard to predict how the Frenchman will do as he often misses out on stages perfectly designed for him on paper.  Van der Lijke has had a very good season so far and is another name to look after in the sprints here.
| Rider | FL | MT | MM | HI | TT | ST | RS | SP | AC | PR | | Demare | 71 | 65 | 72 | 78 | 59 | 72 | 69 | 80 | 78 | 59 | | Van der Lijke | 70 | 61 | 67 | 73 | 63 | 68 | 66 | 79 | 74 | 65 | | Kalaba | 74 | 65 | 67 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 79 | 79 | 78 | | Sanikwathi | 72 | 58 | 62 | 66 | 65 | 70 | 67 | 78 | 78 | 68 |  Hayakawa | 72 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 50 | 73 | 66 | 78 | 77 | 50 | | Rajovic | 72 | 58 | 61 | 64 | 59 | 70 | 76 | 78 | 82 | 62 | | Ganjkhanlou | 73 | 61 | 63 | 65 | 63 | 70 | 70 | 77 | 79 | 74 |  Willems | 73 | 57 | 61 | 64 | 63 | 72 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 70 | | Frame | 71 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 69 | 69 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 79 | | Oka | 73 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 79 | | Baterdene | 74 | 58 | 60 | 61 | 59 | 72 | 70 | 76 | 77 | 64 |
 Chavanne will be glad to hear  Kopfauf, the man who won the last two prologues the Swiss riders was in, is not here. But he will have another German speaking opponent in Schomber.
Though we have plenty of climbing later in the race and it's a really short distance, the prologue could have an impact in the final GC, especially when looking at Faglum Karlsson, who is not only among the best climbers here but also the best prologue specialists. Same goes for  Prado, though at a smaller scale.
| Rider | FL | MT | MM | HI | TT | ST | RS | SP | AC | PR | | Chavanne | 74 | 57 | 60 | 63 | 64 | 70 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 81 | | Schomber | 73 | 54 | 56 | 58 | 74 | 66 | 76 | 69 | 69 | 81 | | Frame | 71 | 50 | 56 | 62 | 69 | 69 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 79 | | Oka | 73 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 76 | 76 | 79 | | Jiang | 72 | 61 | 64 | 66 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 79 | | Faglum Karlsson | 71 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 60 | 68 | 79 | | Kalaba | 74 | 65 | 67 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 79 | 79 | 78 | | Prado | 72 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 73 | 73 | 64 | 70 | 78 | | Hamza | 73 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 75 | 72 | 71 | 55 | 66 | 78 | | Bissegger | 74 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 79 | 73 | 77 | 72 | 73 | 77 |  Oram | 73 | 58 | 61 | 64 | 77 | 72 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 77 | | Noia | 76 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 78 | 70 | 74 | 61 | 69 | 77 | | Marryatt | 71 | 61 | 65 | 68 | 77 | 67 | 74 | 60 | 58 | 77 | | Marchewka | 65 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 52 | 64 | 77 |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 02-04-2026 08:29
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2013
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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Thanks for the preview, alex!
We face another rather favourable startlist here and Ranaweera should be in for a top 5 or even more. Rajovic for once doesn't face the whole bunch of better PCT sprinters, so we hope he may add another stage podium to his season (he - and we as a team - didn't have to many of them so far).
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 02-04-2026 11:35
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3995
Joined: 29-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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One of the weakest lineups we've sent to any race, with the exception of Chavanne hopefully being able to continue his strong form from San Luis and grabbing a good result in the prologue. Other than that we'll be looking at breakaways or maybe something from Eislers in the sprints and Vendrame in the lumpy stages, but honestly anything coming from that would be a massive surprise. Thanks for the preview and good luck everyone!
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| seancoll |
Posted on 02-04-2026 13:42
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 858
Joined: 20-12-2022
PCM$: 500.00
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We love seeing ourselves in almost all the favorites list, although it will be a real battle for that prologue on stage 1. Hopefully we can start off with a surprise top 2 and carry a few extra points around a few stages.
Definitely think we'll be on the outside looking in for most of these stages, but if you put yourself in the conversation long enough sometimes you get a result. Rachid and Main here for a GC option as well with a good combo of MO/TT.
Looking forward to a great week of racing and thanks in advance alex for the reports!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 02-04-2026 14:00
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2789
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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A sort of throwaway race, best hope is a top 10 GC from Lasinis for a few points
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 02-04-2026 14:40
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 4107
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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The lack of selection of the hills and the impact of IT on MTTs I think makes this likely all about the traditional GC guys. Given that really couldn't justify sending one of my climbers and others mostly made the same call which would explain the weak start list.
The time gaps in the Andorra MTT were pretty small so maybe that is an overreaction, will be interesting to see how Ardila and Elosegui do, if they do well lots of us will regret missing this.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Caspi |
Posted on 02-04-2026 21:20
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 847
Joined: 22-09-2022
PCM$: 17200.00
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Get in lads! Show me you want to have your contracts renewed.
Thanks for the preview 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 03-04-2026 21:54
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 02-04-2026 21:59
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7887
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 22645.00
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The only good stage for Reis in Andorra was the MTT. Given that seems to be the decisive stage here and the startlist is weaker I actually have a lot of confidence in this race. But watch that confidence being betrayed by him losing minutes on stage 3.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 03-04-2026 08:25
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2013
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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Congrats Dippo, Chavanne finally shows his strength! And a big shout-out to alumnus Jiang for a strong 2nd place here! Ranaweera among the better GC riders and Vauquelin as U25 leader make this prologue a good one for us as well.
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 03-04-2026 10:11
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3995
Joined: 29-01-2013
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Cracking ride from Chavanne, really happy to see him in yellow. I wonder will he get involved in the sprints now, like in San Luis? In any case, we've already achieved all we came here for, so any more points would be a bonus.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 03-04-2026 10:17
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3858
Joined: 03-07-2012
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Gabby<3
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 03-04-2026 12:19
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7635
Joined: 11-04-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Really happy with 6th in stage one!
Congrats to the winner and thanks for the report!
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| Caspi |
Posted on 03-04-2026 16:13
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 847
Joined: 22-09-2022
PCM$: 17200.00
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Schomber in 4th is very symptomatic for our season. Regardless, 3 riders in the top 10 is a decent start to the race.
Will be exciting to see how the AI handles leadership on the team now. Rodriguez could do quite well in the GC with a bit of luck on the hilly stages.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-04-2026 17:13
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7887
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Somehow Jiang always has that one race where he becomes the god of prologues. Or in this case the undergod of prologues.
Tad disappointing from Kalaba, taking the race lead on the next stage seems off the cards now
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