There's really something for everyone in Japan: two flat rated stages though there is some climbing to be done in them, two hilly stages, one mountain time - trial and one short opening time - trial.
Former winners, Reis and Eastman are here so they have to be looked at when talking about GC favorites. But, it's really hard to make a prediction of what it will take to win this race. Do you have to be a top climber? Yes, definitely. But will the time - trial have an impact on stage 5 or will the hilly stages be selective? Not losing too much time in the prologue could prove to be important too, depending on what kind of gaps the harder stages will bring.
From the top climbers present here, Ranaweera joins the list of those who can also time - trial well next to the two previous winners. Ardila is not exactly good against the clock, but he is by far the best puncheur from the climbers and he will be looking to gain some time in the 3rd and 4th stage. Elosegui and Pira are not really great on hills or time - trials (especially the Colombian), but they hope that won't affect their GC too much and it will be their climbing abilities that will make the difference.
Climbers
Rider
FL
MT
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
SP
AC
PR
Eastman
69
81
76
70
76
75
74
61
68
72
Ardila
67
81
81
80
68
69
70
62
75
68
Ranaweera
67
80
77
73
76
75
75
58
65
73
Reis
69
80
76
72
75
77
75
50
63
75
Elosegui
65
80
76
71
72
77
80
60
71
71
Pira
63
80
76
71
64
68
71
60
69
63
Misbah
68
79
75
70
75
76
73
62
68
74
Lasinis
69
79
76
72
74
73
72
61
68
74
Faglum Karlsson
71
79
76
73
73
78
75
60
68
79
Cras
68
79
76
72
73
78
77
60
67
70
Choi
69
79
76
72
73
74
73
57
65
72
Mavrikakis
70
79
76
72
71
74
73
61
67
71
Looking at the top puncheur's climbing abilities when it come to the big mountains, only Ardila can hope for a good GC place. Kelderman might be past his prime, but he will be giving the Colombian a run for his money. That is, if the hilly stages will prove to be hard enough, which looking at the profiles might not be the case.
So we move our attention to Demare, who will definitely be hoping for some soft hilly stages. Montenegro, who took advantage of some soft hilly stages in Argentina to win the Tour of San Luis, is here as well and ready to prove that win was not a fluke.
Puncheurs
Rider
FL
MT
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
SP
AC
PR
Ardila
67
81
81
80
68
69
70
62
75
68
Kelderman
68
69
75
80
68
77
72
65
69
68
Edmondson
69
68
73
78
63
73
70
69
74
63
Demare
71
65
72
78
59
72
69
80
78
59
Azman
69
76
77
77
63
69
72
65
75
64
Lazkano
65
71
74
77
60
68
71
64
75
60
Duyvesteyn
68
70
74
77
65
67
71
64
76
65
Montenegro
69
70
74
77
64
71
73
64
74
64
Le Gac
70
69
73
77
60
73
74
64
69
60
Kanepejs
70
67
72
77
69
72
71
62
71
69
Senyenov
70
62
70
77
63
68
73
68
73
63
Demare is the top sprinter here according to statistics and giving his abilities over hills, he has to be the main favorite for the green jersey. But, when it comes to stage wins it's always hard to predict how the Frenchman will do as he often misses out on stages perfectly designed for him on paper. Van der Lijke has had a very good season so far and is another name to look after in the sprints here.
Sprinters
Rider
FL
MT
MM
HI
TT
ST
RS
SP
AC
PR
Demare
71
65
72
78
59
72
69
80
78
59
Van der Lijke
70
61
67
73
63
68
66
79
74
65
Kalaba
74
65
67
69
70
70
72
79
79
78
Sanikwathi
72
58
62
66
65
70
67
78
78
68
Hayakawa
72
62
63
64
50
73
66
78
77
50
Rajovic
72
58
61
64
59
70
76
78
82
62
Ganjkhanlou
73
61
63
65
63
70
70
77
79
74
Willems
73
57
61
64
63
72
77
77
77
70
Frame
71
50
56
62
69
69
74
77
76
79
Oka
73
65
66
67
74
71
72
76
76
79
Baterdene
74
58
60
61
59
72
70
76
77
64
Chavanne will be glad to hear Kopfauf, the man who won the last two prologues the Swiss riders was in, is not here. But he will have another German speaking opponent in Schomber.
Though we have plenty of climbing later in the race and it's a really short distance, the prologue could have an impact in the final GC, especially when looking at Faglum Karlsson, who is not only among the best climbers here but also the best prologue specialists. Same goes for Prado, though at a smaller scale.
We face another rather favourable startlist here and Ranaweera should be in for a top 5 or even more. Rajovic for once doesn't face the whole bunch of better PCT sprinters, so we hope he may add another stage podium to his season (he - and we as a team - didn't have to many of them so far).
One of the weakest lineups we've sent to any race, with the exception of Chavanne hopefully being able to continue his strong form from San Luis and grabbing a good result in the prologue. Other than that we'll be looking at breakaways or maybe something from Eislers in the sprints and Vendrame in the lumpy stages, but honestly anything coming from that would be a massive surprise. Thanks for the preview and good luck everyone!
We love seeing ourselves in almost all the favorites list, although it will be a real battle for that prologue on stage 1. Hopefully we can start off with a surprise top 2 and carry a few extra points around a few stages.
Definitely think we'll be on the outside looking in for most of these stages, but if you put yourself in the conversation long enough sometimes you get a result. Rachid and Main here for a GC option as well with a good combo of MO/TT.
Looking forward to a great week of racing and thanks in advance alex for the reports!
The lack of selection of the hills and the impact of IT on MTTs I think makes this likely all about the traditional GC guys. Given that really couldn't justify sending one of my climbers and others mostly made the same call which would explain the weak start list.
The time gaps in the Andorra MTT were pretty small so maybe that is an overreaction, will be interesting to see how Ardila and Elosegui do, if they do well lots of us will regret missing this.
The only good stage for Reis in Andorra was the MTT. Given that seems to be the decisive stage here and the startlist is weaker I actually have a lot of confidence in this race. But watch that confidence being betrayed by him losing minutes on stage 3.
