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Tour of California
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 29-01-2026 03:11
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 4004
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Tour of California
The 2025 Tour of California is the 18th edition of the race. The route is the same as last year. Two time trials (4.6k and 15.7k) bracket the race. In between riders face two moderately hard hilly stages (3 and 4), a mountain stage (6) and two sprints. So a little something for everyone, which makes for a long preview.
As one of the marquee races on the US calendar it has always attracted strong US riders and 8 of the 17 winners have hailed from the US (Phinney x4, Zabriskie x2, Eastman and Warbasse). Only 4 editions have not had a US rider in the top 10 although one of those was last year (along with 2008, 2017, and 2018).
This year the race drops from HC to C1 while last year’s winner Oomen has bumped up to the PT, so no repeat victory for him. Instead,  Matteo Jorgenson, the second-best US GC rider of his generation, fresh off 2nd place in the Tour of America*, takes a shot at adding his name to the honor roll. But he faces some stiff competition including another top name from the US peloton -  Powless.
While those two make it likely the US won’t miss out on the top 10 again there are quite a few riders who could stop them from winning and with the field including everything from time trial intensive riders like Powless to balanced climbers like  Padun, how the different stages play out will become important.
Padun is the best pure climber, Powless the best TTer and Jorgenson probably has the best all around skill set.  Meintjes, riding for CT outfit Glanbia, is a strong all-round climber with a solid TT.  Rodrigues,  Reis, and  Shikai are all strong climbers with solid TT skills, although none of the three is that strong in the hills. While  Lasinis,  Cras,  Faglum Karlsson, and  Choi bring a similar but slightly weaker skill sets as that trio. Although Cras and Faglum Karlsson have some of the best energy stats among the favorites and the Swede is the best prologue rider among those mentioned.
| Rider | FL | MT | MM | HI | ST | RS | TT | PR | | Powless | 72 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 76 | 74 | 80 | 78 | | Jorgenson | 73 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 75 | | Rodrigues | 66 | 81 | 77 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 74 | 74 | | Reis | 69 | 80 | 76 | 72 | 77 | 75 | 75 | 75 | | Shikai | 71 | 80 | 75 | 70 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 75 | | Lasinis | 69 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 72 | 74 | 74 | | Cras | 68 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 78 | 77 | 73 | 70 | | Faglum Karlsson | 71 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 79 | | Choi | 69 | 79 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 73 | 72 | | Padun | 67 | 82 | 80 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 66 | 65 | | Meintjes | 70 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 70 | 70 |
The riders above should dominate the mountain stage but the hilly stages may see some of the punchier riders take center stage. Riders focusing on those two stages include (list excludes Padun and Jorgenson as they are above):
| Rider | FL | MM | HI | ST | RS | SP | AC |  Cerny | 71 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 67 | 75 | 79 |  Mayer | 68 | 73 | 77 | 65 | 72 | 72 | 77 |  Serrano | 69 | 75 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 68 | 77 |  Svab | 70 | 74 | 76 | 70 | 72 | 67 | 78 |  Stocek | 71 | 73 | 78 | 75 | 70 | 70 | 75 | | Meurisse | 72 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 72 | 70 | 76 |  Rojas | 68 | 73 | 76 | 76 | 71 | 67 | 76 | | Ludvigsson | 67 | 70 | 76 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 76 | | Jensen | 69 | 73 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 64 | 73 | | Morales Ortega | 66 | 76 | 76 | 71 | 72 | 63 | 75 | | Vendrame | 72 | 69 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 75 |  Lilovski | 68 | 72 | 77 | 70 | 70 | 65 | 73 |  Kelderman | 68 | 75 | 80 | 77 | 72 | 65 | 69 |
If the hilly stages come down to a small-group sprint then Cerny has a great skill set. If they ride harder maybe it will favor Stocek or Kelderman (or Padun and Jorgenson).
The other terrain where the GC riders will have company going for the stage in is in the TTs. Kmieliauskas will be the favorite for both TTs although Schomber will hope to threaten him in the opening stage as will  Kopfauf who doesn’t quite make this list (also there are the sprinters with strong prologue, more on them below). Other strong TT riders include (Powless excluded):
| Rider | FL | TT | PR | | Kmieliauskas | 74 | 81 | 81 | | Bjerg | 75 | 80 | 79 | | Cataford | 74 | 79 | 79 | | Howson | 70 | 79 | 79 | | Beniusis | 71 | 80 | 78 | | Sütterlin | 70 | 79 | 79 | | Thomas | 73 | 78 | 79 | | Bissegger | 74 | 79 | 77 | | Cosnefroy | 76 | 78 | 78 |  Milan | 77 | 77 | 79 | | Paillot | 68 | 78 | 78 | | Vandevelde | 75 | 78 | 78 | | Viennet | 70 | 78 | 78 | | Schomber | 73 | 74 | 81 |
Finally, there are two stages the GC guys will just want to survive, those are the two for the sprinters. We go deep in this list since the sprint field isn’t that strong. Also, on this list is Chavanne who will be interested in Stage 1.
Thijssen is the best sprinter on paper but he doesn’t have anything in the way of a lead out, while his top two rivals, Kalaba and Kennett both have a least one solid rider in their train.
| Rider | FL | SP | AC | RS | ST | PR | | Thijssen | 75 | 79 | 81 | 70 | 74 | 60 | | Kalaba | 74 | 79 | 79 | 72 | 70 | 78 | | Kennett | 75 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 73 | 78 | | El Sabbahi | 77 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 72 | | Sureda | 73 | 77 | 79 | 69 | 71 | 61 | | Silva | 75 | 77 | 78 | 70 | 69 | 62 | | Major | 74 | 77 | 78 | 70 | 74 | 64 | | Edmondson | 73 | 77 | 75 | 71 | 72 | 74 | | Russo | 73 | 76 | 78 | 73 | 73 | 65 | | Mudgway | 70 | 76 | 78 | 66 | 71 | 65 | | Keough | 70 | 76 | 74 | 68 | 62 | 77 | | Cerny | 71 | 75 | 79 | 67 | 75 | 71 | | Chavanne | 74 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 70 | 81 | | Jiang | 72 | 75 | 75 | 73 | 69 | 79 | | Olei | 69 | 75 | 75 | 71 | 73 | 69 |  Consonni | 72 | 75 | 75 | 76 | 71 | 65 |
24 teams and 190 riders take the start, 11 are from the CT.
Startlist
*The #1 US stage race of his generation lost his TOA by 2 seconds while Jorgenson lost by 6x as much.
 
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Dane Bramage |
Posted on 29-01-2026 13:31
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Free Agent
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Hopefully we can grab a stage win. Our goal is 8. We are at 4 so far. It would be very nice to get another, but it would have to be a quite lucky punch.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 29-01-2026 13:35
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3278
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Full cavalry brought out to play here. I have severe doubts about Inkelaar and Barguil in the GC but with with this layout it's still a solid setup for us if Kennett decides to ride his bike the right way. With the right RDC luck for us there's a world where we have the white jersey after the first stage but it would require quite a bit of luck!
Thanks for the preview!
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 29-01-2026 13:59
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3954
Joined: 29-01-2013
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Chavanne the big hope on stage 1, otherwise maybe Vendrame can do something on non-selective hilly stages. After that, we'll be reliant on breakaways to do anything. Still, should be a fun race!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 30-01-2026 09:09
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 29-01-2026 14:07
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Posts: 1163
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Stage hunting with Politt and Stocek, and breakaway with the others. Let's hope we can get something out of this!
Thanks for the preview 
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| quadsas |
Posted on 29-01-2026 14:34
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2758
Joined: 18-01-2013
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Here to stage hunt, and Lasinis can get himself a top 10 GC if things go well
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 29-01-2026 16:16
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7812
Joined: 22-06-2009
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I appreciate the Jorgenson shade. Hopefully, it lights a fire under him after all this constant praise he gets. 
Will be fun for him to go up against former teammate Powless here, hopefully Padun (or another non-American) doesn't ruin the fun lol
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 29-01-2026 20:16
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7827
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Only Reis' second race of the season. Portugal was a tad disappointing but if memory serves correctly he did surprisingly well on the hilly stage there. I'd like him to remind me of his quality
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 29-01-2026 20:33
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7585
Joined: 11-04-2012
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I think if Carlos can hold on in the hill stages he has a chance in a good result. The ITTs and mountain stage look like they suit him after what we saw at the ToA.
Thanks for the preview!
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| Caspi |
Posted on 30-01-2026 00:41
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 763
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Choi in form from ToA, should be able to top 10 in the GC. We're also hoping for a stage win from Schomber or Sureda. Meurisse will probably be busy servicing Choi on the hilly stages, so no expectations on him.
Thanks for the extensive preview UU.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 30-01-2026 01:46
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2758
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That's exactly right. Let's hope Rokas can hold onto all the jerseys until stage 3 now
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 30-01-2026 04:47
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7585
Joined: 11-04-2012
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Howson with a great 4th! Really happy with how he went there! For a minute I thought he had done enough for the win!
Congrats quadsas on the win and thanks for a great report!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 30-01-2026 07:20
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7827
Joined: 04-07-2012
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No major loss here, the hope is still alive
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| Heine |
Posted on 30-01-2026 08:29
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4547
Joined: 08-04-2007
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Not a bad start by our time trialists, we are pretty much stage result hunting here so every point is a good one
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