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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Man-Game] Discussion
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Ollfardh was bored at work and looked at the PCT leaders 2021
Ollfardh
I'm really not getting any better at this, but yeah, here we go again. Let's see how bad I did last year:

https://pcmdaily....st_1374084


- Again the cobbles were pretty accurate, although the Andorra dominance could not be measured with my system. I did miss the Xero cobblers, but they were doomed anyway so yeah.
- For the hills I was off a bit, both Beltran and Buchmann disappointed and Izagirre took the crown here. Furthermore dropping Claeys from 1th to 6th wasn't enough, as he scored even worse than last year.
- I expected Tenorio to take over from Pluchkin in the stage races, but this was not the year he loses his title as best PCT rider. Gesink coming in third alo meant the stage racers dominated another year.
- What a weird year for the sprinters. I spoke of the big 3, but they got suprised by Manninen (not even in the top 10!) and Guarnieri (10th). Needless to say, my ranking is done for at this point.
- Zmorka defeated Fiedler, I got that right! Also interesting that the pure time trialist are beating the puncheurs this year.



Onto the rankings then, with (x) being the actual final position:

Title favourites
1Mapei (3)
2Desigual (4)
Having a shot at promotion
3Podium (16)
4Swisslion (19)
5Repsol (2)
6Lierse (13)
7Berg (15)
8Popo (7)
9Minions (14)
10Duolingo (10)
11Polar (11)
12Andorra (20)
Safe midtable
13DK (18)
14MOL (6)
15Nordstrom (24)
16GCN (21)
17Fablok (17)
Could be in trouble
18Adastra (25)
19Aramco (22)
20Bakkafrost (9)
21Farfetch (1)
22Valio (12)
23Kraftwerk (8)
24Campari (26)
25Azteka (23)
As doomed as last year
26Xero (5)




- Both Mapei and Desigual promoted, although they did not win the title.
- Farfetch's depth made sure they did not get in trouble and actually win the title
- The having a shot at promotion gang went from 2nd to 20th
- I got Duolingo, Polar and Fablok right!
- Of the could be in trouble list, Adasta, Aramco, Azteca and Campari all went down
- Meaning Nordstrom was not safe midtable
- Xero probably got relegated as well, didn't really follow their season
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Ollfardh
Cobbles

It's a stacked PCT division again, but at least we lose the Summerhill dominance. The top 3 will be really close this year, but 4-7 will also win races and you can't rule out the others either. There's definitely room for some upset wins in the PTHC races.

CobblesRiderTeam
1Adam BlytheEurosport
2Matteo TrentinCarlsberg
3Joeri StallaertBralirwa
4Lukas SpenglerUBS
5Marcos AlturPodium
6Ruben ZepunkteMinions
7Kenneth VanbilsenLierse
8Maxime DanielCarrefour
9Hampus AnderbergAker
10Vegard BreenAssa Abloy




Hills

So, hills went up at well, mostly with aging PT stars, including MG legends Ponzi and Hagen. Again this will be a very close competition and it was hard to only list 10 riders. The top 6 should win most races though.

HillsRiderTeam
1Tomohiro KinoshitaVoyagin
2Toms SkujinsTryg
3Michal KwiatkowskiAker
4Simone PonziUBS
5Eduard BeltranCedevita
6Edvals Boasson HagenMinions
7Ion IzagirrePolar
8Wilco KeldermanPhilips
9Jack BobridgeAfrica
10Tejay Van GarderenSauber




Stage Races

Well, at least the stage races didn't blow up this year. Pluchkin is back for more though, and I don't see anyone challenging him this year. Wellens comes closest, and after that it could go a lot of ways. The races Pluch skips will be very interesting.

Stage RacesRiderTeam
1Aleksandr PluchkinPopo
2Tim WellensTryg
3Jose AlarconCedevita
4Sam OomenLierse
5Nairo QuintanaJura
6Simon SpilakPollos
7Chen ShikaiVoyagin
8Rasmus GuldhammerCarlsberg
9Robert GesinkDuolingo
10Martijn KeizerRed Bull




Sprints

The overall quality of the sprinters has gone down this year, so some new names here. Ewan is definitely the best sprinter, but Van Staeyen could outscore him with good planning. For the others the question is, will it be a Manninen or a Bonifazio season?

SprintsRiderTeam
1Caleb EwanPodium
2Michael Van StaeyenCarrefour
3Peter KennaughBinance
4Matti ManninenPollos
5Leigh HowardIndosat
6Lahcen SaberCedevita
7Theo ReinhardtJura
8Tom Van AsbroeckPhilips
9Fabio SilvestreBralirwa
10Daniel VeselyMinions




Time Trial

A few new names here as well, but Zmorka is still the man to beat. Cataford and Brandle will have a special skillset that could give them the edge over the pure time trialist in some races.

Time TrialRiderTeam
1Marlen ZmorkaPollos
2Luke DurbridgeYorkshire
3Emilien ViennetPolar
4Mario Gonzalez SalasAssa Abloy
5Silvan DillierUBS
6Damien HowsonDuolingo
7Alexandor CatafordPodium
8Steven LammertinkAker
9Matthias BrandleRed Bull
10Jacob FiedlerBralirwa

Edited by Ollfardh on 12-10-2021 10:30
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Ollfardh
On to the final ranking then, and it immediatly shows the flaws of this method. Tryg basicly has 2 great riders, and that puts them on top of the ranking. So I decided not to name them title favourite, because their star riders won't get them far enough. On the other hand some teams with great depth don't see that rewarded in my leader heavy rankings. Poor Kraftwerk even misses out on points after Zabel and Kittel just missed the top 10 in their respective categories. Anyway, here's the ranking:



False positive
1Tryg
Actual title contenders
2Pollos
3Cedevita
4Popo
5Podium
6Voyagin
Could still get promotion
7UBS
8Carlsberg
9Eurosport
10Carrefour
11Lierse
12Minions
13Jura
14Aker
15Bralirwa
Not entirely safe
16Polar
17Binance
18Yorkshire
19Duolingo
20Philips
21Indosat
22Assa Abloy
In trouble
23Red Bull
24Africa
25Sauber
26Kraftwerk

Edited by Ollfardh on 12-10-2021 11:02
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
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jandal7
We may have left the division like you said, but after that I have worked really hard to put us in pole position to come back to the PCT next year and I think we'll manage to do it, just you wait!
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
24/2/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don’t drink famous people.”
8/12/13 - welker3257 said [when asked for a cyclist beginning with K] "Tom Boonen."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [For real doomed] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & Kiwis

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
3x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x3
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
 
redordead
I think 5th best in hills is about as good as I can hope from Beltran. I don't think Alarcon belongs in top 10 stage racers with his piss poor TT, HI and energy stats. While Saber is probably more 8th or 9th among the sprinters.


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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Ollfardh
Everything updated now!

Jandal - well deserved promotion there, and the perfect example of this method completely ovelrooking team depth!

Red - It's all close, Beltran two seasons ago was amazing, Alarcon could shine in the right races and Saber gets a few bonus points because he can handle cobbled sprints the others can't.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
redordead
The worse I get the higher you rank my team it seems :lol:


pcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/mgnewmanager.png
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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
TheManxMissile
It's true, we do have three strong leaders! .... and nothing else. I appreciate the Promotion suggestion but like last season we'll be a big over-estimation Pfft
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
knockout
Yay, the random number prediction is back Cool

The terrain overview is nice though. Cool to see that you rate the three Evonik sales top 2 each. Hope you are right about that! Smile
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!

pcmdaily.com/images/awards/2015/Manteam.pngpcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/mgmanager.png
 
liefwarrior
Clearly the most accurate prediction out there!
 
Ollfardh
Red - Looking back now, I probably overrated Alarcon as you said. So assume you would drop a bit in the rankings Wink

TMM - You had the same thing last year. Ewan should improve though, as a lot of his competition went to the PT. Altur has more competition but no more Andorra domination.

knockout - Smart move to sell them to the PCT rather than your direct PT competition Pfft

liefwarrior - Thank you for the kind words, you have to be the first person ever to say something good about my predictions Grin
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
jandal7
Ollfardh wrote:
jandal - well deserved promotion there, and the perfect example of this method completely ovelrooking team depth!

Thanks Smile As fun as it is to clown on this preview's placing of my team (and some others like Farfetch), I do seriously always enjoy the terrain overview stuff as knockout said. As much as contrarians like me can collect my hybrid riders and high RES surprises, the fans really want to see who's winning the big races Grin And then I think of the ranking as a bit of fun at the end Pfft
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
24/2/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don’t drink famous people.”
8/12/13 - welker3257 said [when asked for a cyclist beginning with K] "Tom Boonen."

[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [For real doomed] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & Kiwis

i.imgur.com/PdCbs9I.png
i.imgur.com/RPIlJYr.png
3x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x3
i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png
 
ember
Nice work, Ollfardh!

It also highlights my team's potential weaknesses, as Kwiatkowski is my only "great" leader, having the potential to score big points. At the same time, the puncheur field is stacked this season, making Kwiatkowski and us vulnerable.
 
Nemolito
Interesting Pfft

I'd already be very happy staying in PCT so I could max my first batch of homegrown talents myself next year, but if I promote things would become even easier of course Wink
 
baseballlover312
Any prediction that names me in the top 10 is probably not one to take seriously, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Pfft
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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DaveTwoBob
Great stuff Ollfardh, very happy to be predicted in last place based on what happened to Xero last season Smile
Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
Ollfardh
Jandal - Thanks, I guess it sets a good base to start for the Coconglomerate Wink

Ember - Hills have become really tough this year, as well as cobbles where Anderberg coulf struggle as well. Galta looks pretty good though, he just fell short of the list but could score a lot.

Nemolito - You like a few others benefit heavily from your great team leaders. I also may have overrated Manninen based on his MG history, so I expect you to finish quite a bit lower, sorry Pfft

BBL - Your team is definitely competitive for the PCT, top 10 is not impossble if Trentin does well and a certain Danish rider won't let you down.

D2B - That's the spirit! I did not expect Kraftwerk to fall short of points here but somehow they did. Hoping you can do a Xero, but I think it will be hard.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
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