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ICL20 - Previews & Statistics
TinxiaS
Thanks to everyone who is doing a great job with this statistic but I'm not sure if my team (Trans) will finish so high special if I'm looking at what happened in MG in the first half of the season. Smile
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pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png i.imgur.com/XZ5vU9L.png
 
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Ulrich Ulriksen
OZrocker wrote:
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
WT
1. Grupo Argos - Quala 10,941
...
5, Baku Synergy Plus 7,915
6. Team BP 7,828
7. Filliers - Mora Pro Cycling Team 7,821
...
13. KBC Godiva 6,914
14. Liberty Seguros 6,857
...

I like this prediction! Don't expect it will actually come true, but it's nice to be in the top half of the table again Pfft

I'm not sure how we got into 5th here, because aside from Dumoulin most of our leaders are really 2nd tier riders at best and are spread evenly across rider types. Even with their recent shift to a new generation I would be very surprised if Liberty Seguros finish that low. Betancur and Herrada will likely be split between races due to their low number of RDs, and top climbers can be very valuable for WT points through the Grand Tours.

The whole WT looks a lot more even this year, with only a few teams who are clearly above or below the average. Argos and Allianz aside, I think 3 of the top 5 spots could be very close and I think the previews so far are showing that. CT is a bit less even, with Equinor and Brugse the clear standouts. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedal Africa finally get promoted too - the years of development have left them with very nice squad depth.


Pretty close between 5th and 9th so maybe viewing it as more like 7th makes sense. Model has a lot of points with Mollema and Moreira so maybe overvaluing that. You have may have 2nd tier leaders but you have solid to strong ones for every terrain.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Ripley
Age Distribution 2020

Here is the age distribution of all professional riders (no U23 teams) in the 2020 ICL peloton as well as the best rider per year of birth:

Year#BestAVG
19821Contador80.5
19832Van den Broeck72.5
19842Nibali80.1
19858Cavendish80.1
198619Mollema78.9
198744Kristoff78.5
198847Kittel80.4
198976Majka80.8
199076Bardet81.9
199190Barguil81.2
199270Polanc79.9
199362Van Poppel80.4
199472Herklotz80.4
199569Van der Poel78.7
199688Spagnoli77.1
199751Pulido76.0
199831Dumont74.8
199916Uribarrena70.1
20009Hamilton70.5
20011Foster67.4

i.imgur.com/EpMEA7M.png

2019
i.imgur.com/Xsz2H2C.png

2018
i.imgur.com/Q7Afomv.png

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
DaveTwoBob
DAVETWOBOBS ICL20 PREVIEW using SUSPECT MODELLING



CONTINENTAL TOUR


[EDIT] - Welcome to late joiners Cadejo - Bike Xpress, they have been added to the preview. Not surprising that they are predicted in last place with a regional focus and missing out on bidding for the top riders. Hope they can still have some fun this season. The new list also includes the renamed Strava - ANZ.


The model indicates four teams are fighting it out for the title. Bosch Cycling Team are very narrow title favourites. Magnum – Madshus, Shell Pro Cycling and Brugse Zot - Trek are in the mix for the title with Equinor Pro Cycling Team as outsiders.

However the model does not well handle single dominant riders who cover multiple terrains which means these results could be misleading e.g. Florian Senechal at VIP Mobile

The Team Score and the “Top 3 Rider” Ranking for each of the Primary Stats are shown in the table.

TeamScoreMOHILTTCOBSPDiff%
1Bosch Cycling Team25172212810
2Magnum - Madshus2512312317-50%
3Brugse Zot - Trek2475412327-42-2%
4Shell Pro Cycling23741820163-143-6%
5Equinor Pro Cycling Team23041344111-213-8%
6Polestar ProCycling p/b Telenor22018111127-316-13%
7Trans Cycling Team215611411411-361-14%
8Education First x Palace - Nippo20556814915-462-18%
9VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff20421347139-475-19%
10Pedal Africa for Qhubeka201964181713-498-20%
11Tierra del Fuego20074168716-510-20%
12Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerry1949188855-568-23%
13Latvijas Balzams - Olainfarm1845815161012-672-27%
14Nordea Bank - SAP18251814565-692-27%
15Millenium - LATAM Airlines179211381919-725-29%
16Strava - ANZ161615206194-901-36%
17Team Cymru Wales1611181813142-906-36%
18ICBC Cycling Team1599812161820-918-36%
19VIP Mobile1486151819117-1031-41%
20Cadejo - Bike Xpress13881716151513-1129-45%



CT Team Top Rider per Terrain

TeamMOHILTTCOBSP
Bosch Cycling TeamSilvio HerklotzSilvio HerklotzSilvio HerklotzHarrison AdamsFabian Schnaidt
Magnum - MadshusDominik NerzDominik NerzRasmus QuaadeGreg Van AvermaetFrederique Robert
Brugse Zot - TrekCharles EngeldingerCharles EngeldingerTaylor PhinneyTaylor PhinneyTaylor Phinney
Shell Pro CyclingMikel LandaMikel LandaSam BewleyMatthew BrandtAdam Blythe
Equinor Pro Cycling TeamVegard Stake LaengenGianfranco ZilioliSteffen HovlandSimon StrømAndrea Guardini
Polestar ProCycling p/b TelenorThomas Nybo RiisWout PoelsFredrik LudvigssonJonas AhlstrandJonas Ahlstrand
Trans Cycling TeamPieter SerryPieter SerryGeraint ThomasGeraint ThomasAndrej Rajsp
Education First x Palace - NippoRigoberto UránRigoberto UránCameron PughPablo AlzagaFrederik Plesner
VisitUkraine p/b NemiroffMykyta SklarLeopold KönigPatrik ŠimekIgor OnofreiAlexey Tsatevitch
Pedal Africa for QhubekaNatnael BerhaneTsgabu GrmayChristopher MwaangaHendrik van der MerweJani Tewelde
Tierra del FuegoJuan ChamorroJuan ChamorroEduardo SepulvedaRoberto Romero MartĂ­nezRick Zabel
Guinness Cycling p/b BlackBerryDaniel MartinDaniel MartinAnthony DesjardinsPhilip LaveryXavier Langlois
Latvijas Balzams - OlainfarmYannick EijssenYannick EijssenYannick EijssenTony GallopinKris Boeckmans
Nordea Bank - SAPJesper HansenPello BilbaoSøren AndersenAnders EgsvangAndrea Palini
Millenium - LATAM AirlinesFrederico FigueiredoMichael BorošNelson OliveiraDario AntonioRafael de Mattos Andriato
Strava - ANZAngus ChapmanJack HaigCampbell FlakemoreCampbell FlakemoreLeigh Howard
Team Cymru WalesNathan EarleNathan EarleSamuel HarrisonLuke Grivell-MellorAndrew Fenn
ICBC Cycling TeamDealton NurMaxat AyazbayevDaniil FominykhJi Min JungHayato Yoshida
VIP MobileNikita NovikovNikita NovikovVito PogacarFlorian SenechalFlorian Senechal
Cadejo - Bike XpressJulian ArredondoDiego OchoaThomas RoseSebastian LanderSebastian Lander

Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
Ripley
Lowest wage per Main Stat

I used the pre-research db to exclude training, in case of a tie I picked the rider with the highest AVG, though there were more ties, of course. About half the names are unchanged since last season:

LevelMonHILSPRCOB TT
75200230180170145
PerichonWallaysErdinSerryZakarin
76240310190250250
MeijersBrambillaKerrisonLindemanSepulveda
77310340340350275
LaengenKreuzigerArndtVan AvermaetBrown
78400530340530370
ChamorroMoreiraKrederBiermansCampenaerts
79660900695550500
AtapumaPolancHowardVan AsbroeckFlakemore
809001400765970695
PolancHerradaNizzoloVanmarckeVorobyev
811240157011251855865
MajkaBardetCavendishSenechalDurbridge
821400
Herrada

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
DarkWolf
Welcome to late joiners Cadejo - Bike Xpress, they have been added to the preview. Not surprising that they are predicted in last place with a regional focus and missing out on bidding for the top riders.


It is rumored that Cadejo's team manager was heard saying behind closed doors: "That's why I hate journalists, they're nosy, noisy and know-it-all. They think that their soulless numbers, analysis and predictions can replace professional work and are a substitute for the pain, sweat and motivation of our cycling team."

Just kidding there. Smile On a serious note, thank you. It's good to be here. I didn't expect anything else being late in signing up. Nonetheless I am having fun already. And I do like building teams up from a specific region, usually one which is not prominent in real cycling. Hopefully I can do that here too. Of course, I did that only through PCM, but I always followed the management games here and I finally gathered the courage to join with a little bit more free time ahead. Sure, I wish my fun will not be only associated with pain. Grin
 
Ripley
Glad to hear it. Scouting and then the next transfer season will surely give you the opportunity to improve the team and/or to focus more on your region.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
DaveTwoBob
Ripley wrote:
Lowest wage per Main Stat


Thanks for all the stats Ripley.
I notice Suntory has the cheapest and most expensive rider in this table Smile
Edit - only the second most expensive now I look closer Embarassed

@Bardas - good to hear you are having fun - hope you have lots of money set aside for scouting as its a great way to find regional talents for a dev team next season.
Edited by DaveTwoBob on 24-02-2021 15:35
Manager of Suntory [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
Fabianski
While at first it might look like I have good negotiation skills having two riders on this "lowest wage per stat" list, it's rather because they're among those with the lowest AVG... Chamorro is the worst 78 climber in the game, due to his bad RES, and Sepulveda is among the lower ones, too - probably for the same reason. So now it's up to them to still live up to their main stat - or at least get a good wage / RD ratio Smile
 
Ripley
it's rather because they're among those with the lowest AVG..


That's implied, of course. Maybe I'll do another table with AVGs in mind.
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
Cost per Race day

In the tradition of obscure statistics: The very weakest domestiques give you about 100 RD for a wage of 100, so each race day costs 1... iclcoin. Here are the 26 riders who cost at least 20 coins per race day (again, before training):

NameWageRDW/RD
Quintana20054247.7
Kwiatkowski21504646.7
Aru16704338.8
Senechal18554937.9
Barguil17004537.8
Bardet15704237.4
Sagan19155534.8
Contador16104734.3
Mohoric16755033.5
Herrada14004431.8
Van Keirsbulck14004531.1
Nibali15005030.0
Majka12404627.0
Yates13705226.3
Degenkolb14255525.9
Phinney12905025.8
Betancur12755125.0
Kittel13405424.8
Herklotz12805224.6
Van Garderen11604923.7
Van Poppel12455423.1
Demare13005722.8
Bouhanni12505522.7
Nerz12005322.6
Cavendish11255520.5
Lutsenko10805420.0

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year. Smile
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
DarkWolf
@Bardas - good to hear you are having fun - hope you have lots of money set aside for scouting as its a great way to find regional talents for a dev team next season.


I'm not sure how much is lots, but I do have some set aside as it's my intention to use the scouting for my team and a future dev team.
 
Shonak
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year. Smile

Not really since wages usually go down in the renewals and guys like GVK, Mohoric and Herrada have become primarily more expensive by adapting wages to training and success and not relentless bidding up. If someone wants to pay 2k for top riders they should but don't take it as an incentive to further drive up prices on everyone else.
Unleash the Landa!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png

"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Shonak wrote:
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Interesting that 3 of the top 4 were signed as FA this year - seems like some of the guys further down the list should be driving a hard bargain in renewals next year. Smile

Not really since wages usually go down in the renewals and guys like GVK, Mohoric and Herrada have become primarily more expensive by adapting wages to training and success and not relentless bidding up. If someone wants to pay 2k for top riders they should but don't take it as an incentive to further drive up prices on everyone else.


A market sets prices - if riders like those 3 can get paid 2,000 on the market I think it means others are underpriced not they are overpriced. Ripley very kindly demonstrated for us that high point scoring riders are undervalued on a price per point basis. I thought that made Quintana worth 2005, someone else thought he was worth 2,000. It don't think it was "relentless bidding up".

There should be some premium for developing and retaining riders, I am not saying that everyone should instantly priced based on Quintana but I am saying that the market is the best indicator of relative value and therefore should be a reference point. If you don't do that you are just creating an aristocracy of teams who have existed for a while and are able to turn their longevity into a permanent advantage by retaining riders at below market rates.

Hope this doesn't comes across as obnoxious. In this case the argument benefits me, but I will always argue for things that make the game dynamic, I will try to have the decency to do that when it doesn't advantage me.
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 25-02-2021 23:51
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Shonak
Don't really see much reason to get into an argument but oh well...

Having seen this play out a couple of times, it is not new that the initial market price is higher up than normal renwals. Bardet went for far higher initial price than Herrada (who is doped up) and yet the price difference between Bardet and Herrada is very marginal by now. So I rather stick to this comparison then to compare it to "new bid" riders, a) whose wage results from a different system (bid vs renewal) and b) whose attractiveness is determined by the supply.

As far as I understand the prices were significantly pushed up in the renewals and experiences like Tao Gheoghan Hart showed that you could get a rider cheaper in bidding, too.

Honestly I don't get why it is good to already call for the next change when we don't even know how the current system will adapt. You talk about market sets prices, then you also know that this is a question of supply and demand. If you drive up prices of "stalled" riders more then the bidding system will become so cheap that there is no difference between keeping and bidding for riders. To make it a bit of a bleak future, moves like TGH will become the norm then. That sounds like a horrible system to me as it has significant impact on long-term perspectives on especially national or discpline focused teams.

I also don't understand what you refer to "premium" for developing and retaining riders.. We already have a significant premium on that. Developing and training riders costs a lot of cash, especially if you hold those young talents at relatively high wages early on and then want to plan with them for years, like Spagnoli, Albine etc. Those guys are highly compensated for relatively lack of scoring; basically the premium you pay now to have them become a strong rider eventually. Sure you can increase the wage demands but does it actually help the game and make it more dynamic when the first thing should be to retain players and have high engagement?
Unleash the Landa!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2016/team.png
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/manager.png

"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
 
Ripley
I think UU meant the opposite with "premium". In any case, Bikex just raised the wage demands of top scorers - even far enough that I didn't renew Tao - and I think it's become tough enough.

Shonak is right, there are plenty more factors to consider. Also, your sample size is very small and the transfer system isn't 100%... accurate/transparent/rational/etc. For example, Phinney was picked up below market value, I reckon, while 1855 for Senechal seems like a lot. Cav was pretty cheap when compared to Quintana. Your own Kittel seems a better deal (Pts/Wage), plus he won't decline at the end of the season. While there wasn't a bidding war for Kwiatkowski, Ceramica just threw everything they had into their opening bid.

So, no, we shouldn't just base wages on what you happened to pay for Quintana. Smile
i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
Ripley
A short ICL 2020 Quiz

I made it multiple choice to make it a little easier, the answers and some more stats follow in the spoilers. We have 1019 riders under contract across the three divisions.

How many have potential 7?

A: 51B: 62C: 73

Spoiler
73: The WT is hogging most of them, I'm afraid. 55 ride in the WT, only 9 each in the CT and U23. Grupo Argos alone has 13, Suntory 6, Allianz 5, Filiers and Peugeot 4 each. In the WT only Sevilla and Vegeta have none.


How many have potential 3 or less?

A: 36B: 49C: 65

Spoiler
36: 10 in the WT, 21 in the CT and 5 in the U23. Just one of them has pot 1, Ervins Rubins. 3 have pot 2, Epalanga, Borcy and Tarvis.


AVG 79.0+ is rewarded with a red colour in the db. How many riders fulfil the requirement?

A: 30B: 36C: 44

Spoiler
36: 31 of them ride for WT teams, 5 of CT teams (Herklotz, Senechal, Phinney, Guardini and Nerz). On paper, the best rider is Bardet (81.9) followed by Quintana (81.8) and Aru (81.7). Only Herrada, Barguil and GVK also have an AVG of 81.0+.


How many riders have surpassed their “natural” age of decline (that is, independent of Potions of Youth)?

A: 19B: 34C: 48

Spoiler
34: Contador is leading the pack, his AoD is 5 years behind him, but thanks to (a record) 4 PoYs he's still near his top level. Monfort and Van den Broeck are 4 years past their prime, they got one PoY each, but they are still just about good enough for their Belgian teams. Two seasons ago the answer was 52 and Samuel Sanchez and Fedrigo were still racing at the age of 40.


How many riders who qualify for the U23 (are 23 or younger and have an AVG of 72.0 or less) are already racing at professional level?


A: 73B: 99C: 127

Spoiler
73: The only 19-year old professional is Ionannis Foster (Strava). 9 are 20 years old, 3 of them ride in the WT (Latham, Kubicki and Blok). Weakest by AVG are Chad Drummond (63.1) and Raymond Thibaut (63.3).


How many daredevils have DHI 80+?

A: 5B: 10C: 15

Spoiler
5: Albini is king with DHI 85, Nibali has 82, Sagan as well as Conva and De Grootte have 80 each. Nibali is the only rider who can really utilise his skill, the rest just can't climb well enough. Sagan has MON 70, Albini has 64, De Grootte 62 and Konwa 60.

i.imgur.com/6Km77FO.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/team%20story.png
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2020/avatar.png
 
df_Trek
got just 2 right answers Pfft
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Shonak wrote:
Don't really see much reason to get into an argument but oh well...



There is a lot fun to be had in a good argument held in the right spirit.

Ripley was right by a premium I was agreeing with you - I meant there should be a reward for development, You should get to keep riders you develop once they are good at below market or why bother developing, as you say. I just think there should be a limit to a team's ability to retain that premium and that over time wages should float up to "market" rates

I didn't mean to call for a specific change in the rules nor was I saying the small sample size values in the market are perfect. I was calling attention to an interesting difference since Ripley took the time to post the analysis (agree the sprinters aren't as out of line but Aru, who I think was a free agent last season, is high up the list as well).
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
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