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PCM.daily Stat Discussion
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Posted on 28-07-2021 23:22
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Tafiolmo
Marco: One of the reasons that Cavendish has a good sprint again is not just for the Tour of Turkey but to give Bennett another strong leadout rider because as you as say Quckstep is the best sprinting team.

Olifardh: You are probably right because unlike VDP he doesn't rest up that much but he did start this season a bit later and he's down to race Amstel Gold which will be a big indicator of whether he does well or blows up again.
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King_Ric
Thymen Arensman had a good performance in Romandie. I think a small climbing upgrade would be deserved.
 
irdalopez
Please! Next update status???
Thanks!
 
Tafiolmo
irdalopez wrote:
Please! Next update status???
Thanks!


We're still in final testing and progressing, just be patient a little longer Smile
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cio93
Pidcock deserves better TT. You can't seriously put him just two points above Ivan Sosa, who has never finished a serious flat TT inside the top 100.

https://www.procy...t-u23/2020
Bissegger and van Wilder have proven how good TTers they are on WT level already.
 
King_Ric
I feel like Vingegaard and Buchmann are both a mountain point too high.
Buchmann had a crash but it was already last year and he hasn't delivered any result since.
Vingegaard has proven too little for that rating.
 
Tafiolmo
Cio: Pidcock and his TT is a clear oversight on my part because I spent most time concentrating on his other stats from the classics and forgot about his U23 TT and have now upgraded him to early 70's.

Ric: Buchmann was part of the general shift in the increase upwards of mtn stats to 83 and may be better at 81 mtn than 82 given his high res. Vingegaard mostly got a higher climbing stat in an effort to help Jumbo come close to matching Ineos as a main climbing team, as I found in testing Jumbo weren't supporting Roglic as well as they could. I'll mention Buchamnn to the DB team but I'm happy with Vingegaard as he is, we will know how good Buchmann is anyway on the first proper mtn stages.

Some of these changes will probably come out very soon or at latest when the Giro stats update comes out.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 10-05-2021 21:30
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King_Ric
Thanks for answering Tafiolmo. I just noticed something else, Cosnefroy hill stat is a bit too high as his only proper top result was a second place in La Fleche last year but this is only my opinion of course.

As a portuguese fan I also think Reis should be on pair with with best conti in TT/PRL (maybe better in PRL than in TT). I could make some more revious about the conti scene (mainly portuguese and spanish) but that would require a much longer post and more thinking into it but if you need I would be glad to help.
 
Tafiolmo
King_Ric wrote:
Thanks for answering Tafiolmo. I just noticed something else, Cosnefroy hill stat is a bit too high as his only proper top result was a second place in La Fleche last year but this is only my opinion of course.

As a portuguese fan I also think Reis should be on pair with with best conti in TT/PRL (maybe better in PRL than in TT). I could make some more revious about the conti scene (mainly portuguese and spanish) but that would require a much longer post and more thinking into it but if you need I would be glad to help.


La Fleche is probably the most important race just for the hill stat which is why Alaphilippe is easily the best pure hill rider. Cosnefroy has lower res and mtn than nearly all the riders near him and in fact all the 81 and 80 hill riders have far better mtn than him with exception of Ulissi, which is why Cosnefroy really does need high hill to compensate.

It would be great if you could do a review of the Spanish and Portuguese scene and either post here or send to me or Croatia Smile
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hansw
I have the following changes in my database: Roglic TT at least 79. Hes better than Thomas and at least as good as Dumoulin. Bernal MT 82, his last results didn't look that good. I don't think he is on par with Pogacar and better than Roglic. Roglic is one of the best time trialists in the peloton and too weak for that in my opinion. Froome MT is too high I think. He has been recovering from his injury for a long time, but still has big problems keeping up in the peloton even on small climbs. I have different (back up) stats on the Yates brothers. Simon is the slightly better in my opinion, but with in your DB it's more the other way around. Campenaerts I have at most 80 TT. His last results all didn't look good for quite some time. For Alaphilippe I have higher back up stats, because otherwise he is overall too weak compared to other riders. Also Alaphilippe is an all around talent who can do several things and he is too weak for that in my opinion. Sosa MTN 79. I wouldn't give Hindley and Tao more than 79 MTN, even if they finished the Giro on 2nd and 1st (weak competition).
 
-Alex-
I agree with the following things :
82 for Cosnefroy in hill is too high. 80 or 81 will be good. His result 2nd at la Fleche was an exception I think.
Pidcock need to be higher in TT.
82 for Buchmann in Mo is too high. 81 will be good if we consider his older results.
 
Croatia14
As said, keep the back-up stats in mind.

A rider with an 82 Hill might feel a lot worse than a rider with 79 hill even on the hills, if their back-ups and secondary stats are significantly worse. Let me give you an example: Cosnefroy on 82 hill probably won't field better results than Kwiatkowski on 79 hill, because his allround-stats will come to use at the majority of his races. In fact, I think that in-game Kwiatkowski would be the better rider for AGR, Liege or Lombardia, while Cosnefroy will be the better rider in the easy puncheur races where it goes ______/, which makes use of his Fleche-style rider type.

For Buchmann's example I think he'll feel by far the worst of the 82 Mo riders. His low Acceleration will intentionally make him feel significantly worse than the usual 82-rider. He'll suffer on any punchy finish and also on the medium-tough mountain stages, and only feel like a big gun when it's the super high alpine stages where it's almost mountain-stat (and Res/Rec in tours) only. He probably won't feel a lot better than f.e. a 79-Mo Guillaume Martin on medium-sized mountain stage due to his Acc/Hill disadvantage.

To close this post: Back-ups & secondarys matter a lot than you think, exclusively looking at the main stat rarely helps in predicting the performance of a rider in-game.
 
Tafiolmo
Some more things to consider:

Putting Roglic too high in TT is a risk and I remember the problems some years ago with Froome when he had 79 or 80 TT for him and most complained that this was too high for a main GT contender. Also if we raised Roglic we would have to raise Pogacar who as we know can beat him in TT, then we might have to raise Almeida as well and before we know it, we'll start raising too many GT riders in TT. In Thomas's case it's a bit different as he was good at TT before he became a GT rider and if anything we would be more inclined to decrease his TT than raise Roglic.

Campanaerts has become somewhat unpredictable in TT but the results are still there. 2nd in the final TT at last years Giro behind Ganna and ahead of Dennis, and exactly the same again at last years Tirreno as well. Only really disappointed at last years Worlds BUT has failed to put in a good TT result so far this season.

Both Tao and Hindley would be 79 mtn but got a shift up as part of the push to 83 mtn and especially in the case of Hindley his back-up stats are not great. Also he will probably share leadership with Bardet if both are selected for the same GT. If they were the same mtn stat Bardet without doubt would get leadership, so by putting Hindley a point higher that gives him an advantage.

Froome is the perfect example at 78/74 of a rider that will do much better on longer mtns than shorther ones with his climbing stats and he will poorly on shorter mtns and hills compared to his rivals.

Finally besides always looking at current results, we always go back a couple of years as well of riders too and take these results into consideration still and this is especially important that the 2020 season was totally ruined anyway..
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AiZaK
Guys... 2 or 3 years later Lutsenko has the same stats, I dont know why he can't be 77 in Hills?? You push a lot rider in Hill, and Lutsenko always is 75, yeah I know that he has a lot endurance and energy... But 75 in Hills, is too low, loik his results, he is a beast!
 
baseballlover312
Forewarning: I've only read the discussions on here and taken a look at the DB, I haven't played PCM 20. So my opinion is useless and only based on old PCM's and real life comparisons. However, using what I know of PCM 11-18, some of these stats are definitely quite surprising. If Cyanide changed how stats work or what the matrix is since PCM 18, that explains it. That's the last one I have.

I don't want to question you guys cause you're the experts in DB's, not me. But I do think it's a bit weird to craft the DB around specific 2021 AI scenarios and results rather than the actual strength of guys. Within a year of a season, or when playing online, those kinds of strategies will be lost to player decisions and transfers, and the DB will be even more weird, causing more unrealistic results.

I agree with others that Cosnefroy 82 hill and Buchmann 82 mountain are pretty bizarre. It seems the DB in general is just way more top loaded than it used to be, though part of that just represents a shift in cycling.

Cosnefroy has the 2nd in Fleche last year... and that's it. I know it used to be that stats were based on several years of results and included consistency. Cosnefroy hasn't done anything else in his entire career that even necessarily warrants 80 hill imo. He's never won a race above 1.1 level, and he's never had another Ardennes top 10. He's also still young and will progress. Maybe I'm wrong, but that just doesn't seem like 82 hill to me. Shouldn't we consider the possibility that his 2nd in Fleche last year was a +4 day or something? He doesn't have anything in the same league backing it up. I know mtn will play a role in balancing it, but he doesn't even have those results in pure hilltop finishes.

Same thing with Buchmann. 82 mountain used to be reserved for guys who were always within shouting distance of winning GT's and WT stage races. Buchmann has never been on a GT podium, and he's never won a WT stage race. Last year he was 38th in the Tour, and he's already behind at the Giro. Yes, his 4th at the Tour was impressive, as was his run up to it in 2019, but you don't need 82 mtn to finish 4th at the Tour once, do you? You never used to. 80 or 81 is still very much in the range of those results on great form. If Buchmann is 82, Roglic should be 85+ imo. He's both way better and way more consistent.

I've read the above posts, and I recognize that secondaries matter a lot. But it's just hard for me to believe they matter enough to make these guys 82 main statters.

Just my thoughts, I could be totally off, so please don't take this the wrong way. I'm just curious as to how much the stats rationale has changed in terms of game impact and the matrix.
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cunego59
baseballlover312 wrote:
If Buchmann is 82, Roglic should be 85+ imo. He's both way better and way more consistent.

Well now you're just hurting my feelings Pfft

(I don't want to interfere here too much because stats aren't my field of expertise, but be assured that Buchmann is someone who's under very close observation atm)
 
baseballlover312
cunego59 wrote:
baseballlover312 wrote:
If Buchmann is 82, Roglic should be 85+ imo. He's both way better and way more consistent.

Well now you're just hurting my feelings Pfft

(I don't want to interfere here too much because stats aren't my field of expertise, but be assured that Buchmann is someone who's under very close observation atm)


Hey, I don't want that to be the case! I like Buchmann and I'm not a fan of Roglic at all. That's just been my impression from the last couple of years of racing.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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King_Ric
I do agree that the TT in stage racers is correct as it is, as for cosnesfroy i understand that on that day in La Fléche he had those stats but it might as well have been a glimpse of form that was never repeated.

Tafiolmo - about that review to the lower iberic scenes i'll try to elaborate one and send to you (or post it here) soon.
 
Tafiolmo
Baseballlover: Thanks for the lengthy post and yes over the years the stat matrix has gradually gone up after the below 60 stat riders were all raised to 60 and over several years back and there has been a general increase towards the higher end stats of 82 and 83. This is similar to the official DB and some other DB's over the years but we found that wasn't really sufficient on its own and we started doing more work and recognizing the importance of secondary stats especially acc, res and the endurance stats and how they can play a big part on defining a rider and how he performs, I tend to refer to these sometimes as character stats, as it's these secondary stats that imo make a DB interesting.

If we take Cosnefroy for example he actually has better hill results than many have noticed. Even before Fleche he was already upto around 77 hill after his impressive rides in French races in 2020 and 2019 and then rode to 2nd at Fleche, 3rd at De Brabantse and 2nd Paris Tours. In some of these races he finished behind riders like Hirschi, Alaphilippe and Van der Poel all riders that he can't begin to compare with in secondary stats, so even with a very high hill stat he's going to need to be on good form to compete with these type of riders. So instead of just looking at his hill stat take a look at his secondary stats in relation to his rivals. As mentioned earlier by Croatia, I doubt race for race he is going to compete consistently as a rider like Kwiatkowski who is 3 hill points less but so much stronger in back-ups.

Another example is in yesterdays stage, Pellaud had superior climbing over Van der Hoorn but Van der Hoorn was superior on the flat and more importantly much more in power, so for the next update both will get some climbing increases with Pellaud being better than Taco in climbing but he still won't be able to compete with the res of Taco, in this game RES is king, which is why it's the domain of riders in the flat and cobble classic riders and TT'ers.

As stated Buchmann is closely being watched and whether his 82/76 is justified that will only really be seen on the longer climbs in the Giro and if he doesn't perform on them or even crashes out then he will get a decrease and in just a short time we will know this. You also mentioned a comparison between Roglic and Buchmann and with the stats that they have, the only way Buchmann is likely to beat Roglic is over long mtn stages which as we know is something of an achilles hill for Roglic. If Roglic wasn't so consistent in general he probably would have a lower mtn stat due to his very high secondary stats, even as he is he's still the best GT rider in the DB.

Aizak: The problem with Lutsenko is that he is so inconsistent and if we raise his stats more he'll become too strong and start competing for the GC in GT's and his averages in stats are super high anyway. He has promised so much over the last years but just when you think he will go from being a podium man at week tours to something bigger it never happens. I now think he will just always be a week long stage racer and stage hunter in the GT's.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 11-05-2021 22:58
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Tafiolmo
King_Ric wrote:
I do agree that the TT in stage racers is correct as it is, as for cosnesfroy i understand that on that day in La Fléche he had those stats but it might as well have been a glimpse of form that was never repeated.

Tafiolmo - about that review to the lower iberic scenes i'll try to elaborate one and send to you (or post it here) soon.


Will look forward to your ratings.
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