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PCM.daily » Pro Cycling Manager 2016 » PCM 16: PCM.daily Projects
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PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
jeremyrobin
Antunes 72mon <73 72val <74 5th of the Tour of the Algarve, winner of a stage finishing on the coast

Roson 63nd <67 66re <68 68rec <70 3rd of Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali, 2nd of the 2nd stage of the Tour of Croatia in front of Nibali, Niemiec and Siutsou

Celano 65end <68 1st of the Giro dell'Appennino, 8th of the Tour of the Alps


Bernal 66end <68 67res <69 66rec <70 for the whole of his start of the season
 
Tafiolmo
Thanks for those mentions and most have been done (Antunes left for the CT guys)

There are always going to be riders like these that are going to pass under the radar given the huge amount of riders in the DB.
pcmdaily.com/files/exppack/PCM2020/dbteambanner2021.png
 
jeremyrobin
David Gaudu: I do not think it's normal for Gaudu to have the same MO as a Latour for example. The 76 comes and can only come from a single stage of the Tour de Catalunya, but we can not give a 76 MO like that. Especially when this 76 puts him on the same level as Latour who has already given far more guarantees. (Victory on the 2016 Vuelta, leader of the 2016 Tour de Suisse etc.) My proposal: 74 MO

Marc Soler: So yes, Marc Soler was very strong in Catalonia but it is the only race this year apart from Paris-Nice (and only Route du Sud last year). So it's exactly the same situation as David Gaudu and it's not normal. My proposal: 75 MO

Michal Kwiatkowski: I think Kwiatkowski has a PAV rating of 77 too high. Indeed, he has not made a single Flanders this season and these last paved races date a year. So we do not really know his level on the paving stones so that's why I propose that his note be lowered because there with his current note he can play the first roles and this does not really fit the reality. And where does his note come from? Just a victory on the E3 in 2016, I do not find it logical. My proposal: 75 PAV

Ian Stannard: How can we put 78 PAV on him when he did nothing good on the Flanders this season? 77 to the limit but 78, no. 78 is as much as Kristoff or Gilbert
 
Ollfardh
I'm completely against reducing stats because riders didn't do certain races. Kwiatek is good on cobbles and deserves those stats. I mean, over the last few years I've seen people claim Gilbert can't do cobbles anymore and should be reduced to 72 or even lower. He kinda showed them wrong this year, didn't he?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
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Selwink
jeremyrobin wrote:
David Gaudu: I do not think it's normal for Gaudu to have the same MO as a Latour for example. The 76 comes and can only come from a single stage of the Tour de Catalunya, but we can not give a 76 MO like that. Especially when this 76 puts him on the same level as Latour who has already given far more guarantees. (Victory on the 2016 Vuelta, leader of the 2016 Tour de Suisse etc.) My proposal: 74 MO

Marc Soler: So yes, Marc Soler was very strong in Catalonia but it is the only race this year apart from Paris-Nice (and only Route du Sud last year). So it's exactly the same situation as David Gaudu and it's not normal. My proposal: 75 MO

Michal Kwiatkowski: I think Kwiatkowski has a PAV rating of 77 too high. Indeed, he has not made a single Flanders this season and these last paved races date a year. So we do not really know his level on the paving stones so that's why I propose that his note be lowered because there with his current note he can play the first roles and this does not really fit the reality. And where does his note come from? Just a victory on the E3 in 2016, I do not find it logical. My proposal: 75 PAV

Ian Stannard: How can we put 78 PAV on him when he did nothing good on the Flanders this season? 77 to the limit but 78, no. 78 is as much as Kristoff or Gilbert


Concering many of these stats, I see you're judging on the base of 2017 only. You should keep in mind that stats are not only based on this year, but also the years before.

If you consider that Stannard was in the winning group in Paris-Roubaix only last year, then 78 is the absolute minimum. It's not like last year was a one-off for him, if anything this year was more a one-off disappointment.

Marc Soler's 76MO makes complete sense. He's been incredibly strong in Catalunya, and a consistent third place in such a race would give him around 78MO already. So why would 76 be too high?

I must say I completely agree on Gaudu. He's been climbing very well, but I'm not convinced he's already at 76MO level, I think our stat team has been carried away a bit by the hype there Pfft

And in the case of Kwiat, I agree with what's been said above as well.

I wouldn't give Antunes as high as 73MO 74HI. That means he will win every .2 hill and mountain race he enters, and probably be quite dominant there as well. It's the same as suggesting Diaz should have 78MO, as someone did a few years ago Pfft
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Tafiolmo
jeremyrobin wrote:
David Gaudu: I do not think it's normal for Gaudu to have the same MO as a Latour for example. The 76 comes and can only come from a single stage of the Tour de Catalunya, but we can not give a 76 MO like that. Especially when this 76 puts him on the same level as Latour who has already given far more guarantees. (Victory on the 2016 Vuelta, leader of the 2016 Tour de Suisse etc.) My proposal: 74 MO

Marc Soler: So yes, Marc Soler was very strong in Catalonia but it is the only race this year apart from Paris-Nice (and only Route du Sud last year). So it's exactly the same situation as David Gaudu and it's not normal. My proposal: 75 MO

Michal Kwiatkowski: I think Kwiatkowski has a PAV rating of 77 too high. Indeed, he has not made a single Flanders this season and these last paved races date a year. So we do not really know his level on the paving stones so that's why I propose that his note be lowered because there with his current note he can play the first roles and this does not really fit the reality. And where does his note come from? Just a victory on the E3 in 2016, I do not find it logical. My proposal: 75 PAV

Ian Stannard: How can we put 78 PAV on him when he did nothing good on the Flanders this season? 77 to the limit but 78, no. 78 is as much as Kristoff or Gilbert


Soler: Soler is actually 77 mtn I remember the stats team did a vote for him on his mtn stat and any less than this and there is no way he would be performing like he did at Catalunya. But if you look at his other stats they are not very high. At the moment his climbing stats indicate an upcoming rider with a potential to increase further this year, So imo 77 is a fair climbing stat for him at the moment.

Gaudu: This is a temporary change as I put him 75 mtn and 76 hill in the DB and then Croatia reminded me that he is better going up mtns than hills so I then put him to 76 mtn as well. Then of course I saw how well he did at FW. I therefore imagine that Gaudu will be discussed some more before we settle on his final stats.

Kwiatkowski and Stannard: Both fall into the same cat as both are based over the last year or so. I'd say Stannard has just had a disappointing cobble season as his performance in last year's PR is still fresh in the mind and that still earns him a top cobble stat. Now if he performs poorly next year then he will get a decrease like we have with VDB now at Ag2r. Kwiatkowski may well end up like Thomas who was a 79 cobbles a few years ago but has now dropped to 76 cobbles as he doesn't ride them anymore and if Kwiat doesn't ride them next year he will also get the drop as well. But the fact is both Kwiat and Thomas can ride cobbles well when they want to as Gilbert has proven this year.

Bear in mind dropping riders in cobbles can be tricky to do and Langeveld is the perfect example as about three years ago he was 78 cobbles and had dropped to 74 now after this season he's back at 78 cobble again. So with that example better to give Stannard and Kwiat more time.

On a final note what we tend to do is raise riders like Soler and Gaudu etc quite quickly but keep their back-up stats low BUT we tend to lower riders stats more slowly and to try and keep the balance in the DB (otherwise we would have too many riders constantly being increased rather than being decreased) we have a purge every so often when mtn or hill stats are revised and dropped and we will certainly do this again before the new DB is released. I recently did the cobble purge myself about a week ago but of course as to how effective that will be will only be revealed when the new DB gets played.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 22-04-2017 12:25
pcmdaily.com/files/exppack/PCM2020/dbteambanner2021.png
 
Arberg27
Selwink wrote:

Concering many of these stats, I see you're judging on the base of 2017 only. You should keep in mind that stats are not only based on this year, but also the years before.
When that's why Contador has 82 MO, 78 HI, 79 ACC, 77 END, 80 REC etc...
He was so good 10 years ago, that time with: Operación Puerto, Michael Rasmussen thrown out, clenbuterol, A.Schleck lost the chain, none Froome, none Quintana etc... :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
AiZaK
Hi guys!

What is your opinion about Alexander Edmondson?? In hills, sprints and acc??
 
Tafiolmo
Just a few months ago he was mid 60's for everything now he's early to mid 70's in most things and it seems like I'm upgrading him on a weekly basis. He now has good stats in flat, sprint, acc, cobble, res, hill and his best is in prologue.
pcmdaily.com/files/exppack/PCM2020/dbteambanner2021.png
 
jeremyrobin
I do not know if you've paid attention but I've spotted some inconsistencies in the riders' favorite races. For example Dan Martin has the Tour of Flanders in favorite races in last year's cdb
 
matt17br
Favourite races are a work in progress and the final version of the db will include carefully revised favourite races for more than 350 riders - could be more.
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Alakagom
Make them like the WorldDB 17, compared to your crap those are actual good statistics.
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jeremyrobin
Harm VanHoucke pot5>pot6
Leo Appelt pot5>pot6
Enric Mas pot5>pot6
Aurélien Paret-Peintre pot5>pot6

Restrepo : 63end>66 65res>67, he finished 10th in Down Under, 4th in Cadel Evans Great Road Race, 2nd in Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia

De Plus : 63end>65, he finished 13the in tour of Oman, 10th in De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne, he was in the leading group at the time of the border yesterday in giro d'Italia
 
Tafiolmo
jeremyrobin wrote:
Harm VanHoucke pot5>pot6
Leo Appelt pot5>pot6
Enric Mas pot5>pot6
Aurélien Paret-Peintre pot5>pot6

Restrepo : 63end>66 65res>67, he finished 10th in Down Under, 4th in Cadel Evans Great Road Race, 2nd in Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia

De Plus : 63end>65, he finished 13the in tour of Oman, 10th in De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne, he was in the leading group at the time of the border yesterday in giro d'Italia


Thanks for the mention and Restrepo was already on my list to be improved before the DB release anyway BUT I had clean forgot about De Plus after yesterdays stage and will up his flat etc

I'm currently working on fav races and a complete overhaul of around 400 riders and can assure you that D.Martin will not have Flanders in his fav list. From memory he max's at three fav races that have been decided on: Catalunya, LBL and Fleche
pcmdaily.com/files/exppack/PCM2020/dbteambanner2021.png
 
cio93
jeremyrobin wrote:
Leo Appelt pot5>pot6


I am not sure I agree. He's been great in the junior ranks, but he hasn't had a single decent result since his WC win, often struggling to even finish races.

I suspect something's wrong with him either mentally or health wise, but I never found anything in particular. He's only turning 20 soon, so maybe it just takes a bit longer for him to adapt to U23 racing.
For now, he's definitely not pot 6 though.
 
jeremyrobin
Marco Minnaard finish 10th in tour of Austria 2016, 7th in tour of Norway 2016

68mon<70
70val<72
 
catenaccio81
Great performance today of Tom Dumoulin in the giant Blockhaus. As I said, this year he has changed his training to improve his climbing skills even if he loses some TT performance. This is the way to aim the GC.

It seems that this training is working, beating almost all the rivals.
 
Tafiolmo
The baby has almost arrived............... should be here in a few days I hope!
pcmdaily.com/files/exppack/PCM2020/dbteambanner2021.png
 
matiasb
FinallyBanana
 
Tafiolmo
Notice

All stats have been done upto stage 9 of the Giro the Blockhas stage. Which though feels strange as it is normally better to have the final stats for a GT when it's finished and not after the first week. So for example we will have lesser known riders like Schlegel with an improved mtn stat but not much else as we don't know how he will go in other areas.

One of the big additions will be 'favourite races where 400+ riders have been statted for this with more to come on the next DB, with weather conditions I hope as well.

Anybody not familar with how favourite race works it's quite simple. All riders have three slots in races that they are more likely to be in form for and so one rider may have three fav races and another just one, whereas some will have none. This of course is an on-going project and like the stats will be constantly in motion. These fav races were chosen for riders from races that they have historically good results in (over the last few years only) or races where they often get noticed in such as in breakaways etc, a lot of this of course will be subjective. Finally it was decided between Matt and myself to not use Milan San Remo as a fav race in order to create its total unpredictability, exception though is Swift who for a weaker sprinter seems to do very well in that race

The only real errata is for Ruben Fernandez, Howson, Sabataini and Calmejeane who were missed before the DB upload and have been improved just yesterday (as these would have been their stats prior to Giro stage 9 deadline) THeir stats if anybody wants to see are on the google stat document, if anybbdy wants to alter them manually in their DB. Either way it's not so important because I hope that there will be an immediate stats update when the Giro is over.

Enjoy!

PCM Daily Stats Team: Myself, Croatia, Kody and the Boss Matt. With always useful insights from Jeroen
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